Wednesday NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Expect Another Big Game from Tyler Herro (Sept. 23)
Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Tyler Herro #14 of the Miami Heat.
- Brandon Anderson previews Wednesday's top player props for Heat vs. Celtics Game 4 using our FantasyLabs prop tool, including a play on Miami guard Tyler Herro.
- Below, find his full NBA Playoffs player prop betting analysis, including which other players he's targeting in tonight's pivotal Eastern Conference Finals matchup.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll, especially in the NBA postseason. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
|Win-Loss (Win Pct)|
|Bet Quality of 10||775-572 (57%)|
|Bet Quality of 9||942-776 (54%)|
|Bet Quality of 8||1432-1263 (52%)|
Wednesday’s player props come from Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals:
- Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
Odds as of Wednesday at 10 a.m. ET
NBA Player Prop Bets
Miami Heat, Tyler Herro
The Prop: Over 14.5 points (-106) [BetMGM]
The Celtics won Game 3, but Tyler Herro was awesome for the Heat and continues to look like a rookie gem and X-factor off the bench. Herro took more shots than any Heat player in Game 3, hitting 4-of-12 3s and scoring 22 of Miami’s 28 bench points.
That was a career-high for the rookie and a likely outlier, of course, but Herro’s arrow is pointing up. The Heat are tightening up their rotation and Herro has been their only reliable bench scorer. He’s seen his minutes rise from 32 per game in the first two playoff series to more than 36 per game against the Celtics, and that should continue to remain elevated.
Part of Boston’s breakthrough in Game 3 was a change in defensive scheme. In the first two games, Goran Dragic had been slicing up the Celtics’ defense, penetrating and breaking Boston down, often with easy buckets to Bam Adebayo. In Game 3, the Celtics responded by increasing their ball pressure on Dragic, often with Marcus Smart. Dragic had his worst game of the playoffs — he was -29 with five turnovers, shooting 2-of-10 — and Miami was forced to look elsewhere for offense.
That’s where Herro came in, and it’s why he should continue to see an elevated role going forward. The Heat need some offense, and they need an aggressive Herro. He could approach 20 points again, and I love this prop up to -140.
Miami Heat, Jimmy Butler
The Prop: Over 3.5 assists (-158) [FanDuel]
Assuming Boston throws Smart at Dragic again in Game 4, the Heat will need to find some creation elsewhere, and they’ve had half a week to prepare.
The most likely source ought to be Jimmy Butler, who has been weirdly quiet this series from a numbers standpoint. Butler has been a leader on court and made big energy plays late in both Miami wins, but he’s third on the team in scoring at 17.0 PPG this series and fourth in assists at just 3.7 APG.
I expect more handling, creation, and aggression from Butler tonight. The Heat cannot let this series get away from them, and that means it’s time for their leader to step up with a big game. Butler can put up big numbers when he spends more time on the ball, and 3.5 assists is not a big ask. Butler topped that number in seven of his first 10 playoff games before being more muted the past couple games.
Game 4 is pivotal for both sides. Boston can tie the series up, or Miami can send them to the brink up 3-1. It’s a game for stars to show up, and I expect Butler to play a more active role on the ball. I’ll play this over to -175, but will be even happier to play at better odds if it jumps to 4.0 dimes.
Boston Celtics, Jaylen Brown
The Prop: Over 6.5 rebounds (+105) [DraftKings]
The big change for the Celtics in Game 3 was the return of Gordon Hayward at last. On the surface, you might think Hayward’s return means a breather for Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown on the wing, but really it’s bench minutes that Hayward is taking. Boston relied heavily on its top six players all season and was back at it in Game 3. Their top six played all but 24 minutes, with no other Celtics players reaching 10 minutes.
Brown’s minutes aren’t going anywhere, and he’s actually playing more of them against opposing bigs with Hayward back. Celtics head coach Brad Stevens thinks his best lineup is his best five guys — Brown, Tatum, Smart, Hayward, and Kemba Walker — which leaves the team without a legitimate big man. That means guys like Brown and Tatum have to hit the boards harder to compensate, and Brown has been a big rebounder this postseason.
He’s averaging 39.4 minutes, 21.1 points, and 7.3 rebounds per game this postseason with at least five boards in every playoff game. That’s a really impressive floor that puts us only two rebounds away from an over, and Brown’s gone over 6.5 rebounds in five of his last nine games.
We’re projecting him at 8.5 boards, and I’m hammering this one at +EV odds but will play to -130 as needed.