Freedman’s Favorite Prop Bet (Jan. 1): Andre Drummond Points
Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Andre Drummond
- Matthew Freedman is kicking off 2019 with a new series featuring his favorite prop bet of each day.
- His first pick? The over/under on 16.5 points for Andre Drummond against the Bucks.
I had a great 2018 betting on props, thanks primarily to our FantasyLabs Tools, so for 2019 I will have a quick-n’-dirty daily piece in which I highlight my favorite prop for the day.
Why Betting on Props Is Fun
In 2018, I bet on thousands of props across a variety of sports: NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, NASCAR, golf (PGA and European Tour) and eSports (League of Legends). I even placed bets on pop culture events, such as the Academy Awards, the Grammy Awards and Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest.
Was I successful with all of them? No. And that’s why I almost never bet on any kind of prop related to darts anymore. Almost never.
But overall I had success last year, and I also had a lot of fun. There are many practical reasons why people should play props. But I honestly play them because they’re fun.
Before 2018, I knew very little about almost every sport outside of the NFL. Now, I still know almost nothing, but I know more than I did, and on a daily basis I enjoyed sweating the individual performances of many players across all sorts of sports.
I’m looking to keep the good times rolling in 2019.
What Tools I Use to Bet Props
Here are the research tools and articles I use to inform my prop-betting decisions.
The FantasyLabs Props Tools: These tools compare our industry-leading projections to the props available in the market and highlight which props offer the most value.
The FantasyLabs Models: Some sportsbooks offer fantasy point props, which I’ve bet successfully using the projections in our daily fantasy models.
The RotoViz Tools: I got my early start in the industry at RotoViz (as did FantasyLabs co-founder Jonathan Bales), and RotoViz has a great collection of NFL and NASCAR apps. Here are some of my favorites.
The Action Network Articles: Each day, you can find at least one props piece on The Action Network, most likely written by one of the following contributors.
- Matt LaMarca: NBA & MLB
- Justin Bailey: NFL & MLB
- Cort Smith (of Bet the Prop): NFL
- Nick Giffen (of RotoViz): NASCAR
Approximately 99% of the success I’ve had with prop bets is due to these resources. I suggest you consult them for yourself.
2019 Year-to-Date Record
0-0-0, +0.0 Units Won
Freedman’s Favorite Prop Bet for Tuesday, January 1: Andre Drummond Points
The Pick: Over 16.5 points (+100)
Drummond is averaging 17.4 points per game on the season. It’s not ideal that the Pistons are traveling, but Drummond’s career field-goal percentage is actually higher on the road than at home (54.3% vs. 54.0%).
In our NBA Props Tool, we have Drummond projected for 18.1 points, and he’s had at least 17 points in 55.9% of his 34 games this season.
I found this line at MyBookie. At 16.5, I’d be willing to bet this to -110. At +100, I’d be willing to bet this to 17.0.