Tuesday NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Continue to Bet on Throwback Rondo? (Sept. 8)
Jim Poorten/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Rajon Rondo.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll, especially in the NBA postseason. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
|Win-Loss (Win Pct)|
|Bet Quality of 10||775-572 (57%)|
|Bet Quality of 9||942-776 (54%)|
|Bet Quality of 8||1432-1263 (52%)|
Tuesday’s player props come from both of the slate’s games:
- Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat at 6:30 p.m. ET on TNT
- Los Angeles Lakers vs. Houston Rockets at 9:00 p.m. ET on TNT
NBA Player Prop Bets
Los Angeles Lakers, Rajon Rondo
The Prop: Over 3.5 rebounds (+104)
We got a throwback Rondo game on Sunday night, he notched 10 points and nine assists in just under 30 minutes and will certainly play a big role in Game 3.
Rondo is not a great defender anymore, but he’s terrific at jumping passing lanes and had multiple steals to that end once the Lakers trapped James Harden or Russell Westbrook and forced a panicked pass that Rondo could jump in and intercept.
That’s important to us because that value should keep Rondo on the court over other Lakers guards. If he’s on the court, he’s going to get rebounding opportunities. I expect Rondo to push 30 minutes again and he’s always been an excellent rebounding guard at 5.5 career rebounds per 36 minutes. We’re projecting him at 4.4 boards and rating this prop a 10 out of 10. I’ll play to -135.
Milwaukee Bucks, Khris Middleton
The Prop: Under 25.5 points (+104)
As of Tuesday morning, Giannis Antetokounmpo is still listed as questionable to play, but you can guess how the oddsmakers are leaning based on props like this one. It would surprise me if the Bucks risked Antetokounmpo after multiple ankle sprains within the past week, even in a must-win game, and the oddsmakers are clearly expecting Antetokounmpo to be out too.
The Bucks survived to see another day in Game 4, in large part because of a monster game from Khris Middleton, with 36 points, eight rebounds, and eight assists. It’s not unusual for a team like the Bucks to see a temporary rush after the exit of a superstar like Giannis, both because the team is galvanized and because the opponent tends to let down its guard.
If Antetokounmpo sits out Game 5, you can bet the Heat will be far more prepared for an offense centered around Middleton. He wasn’t even particularly efficient from the field, making just 9-of-21 inside the arc, but he took on a huge role and made all nine of his free throws. He had scored 23 points or fewer in all but one previous playoff game this year and has struggled to score efficiently all postseason.
If Giannis doesn’t play, expect Miami to throw Jimmy Butler and their top defensive pressure at Middleton to force any other Buck to beat them. If Giannis does give it a go, now Middleton returns to Option B.
I like the under either way here, and this line is an overreaction to his big Game 4. I’m hammering at +EV before Giannis news comes out, and I’d play to -115.
Milwaukee Bucks, Brook Lopez
The Prop: Over 6.5 rebounds (+135)
As the Bucks continue to search for answers against the Heat, one of those answers has come in finally ramping up the minutes for their best players over the past few games. Despite Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer’s hesitance, he’s finally letting his best guys loose regardless of the outcome.
For Lopez, that meant 38 minutes in Game 3 and 41 in Game 4, a far cry from the 26.7 MPG he averaged in the regular season. Lopez has never posted big rebounding numbers, and they’ve dropped even more as he plays farther from the hoop on offense, but he still averaged 6.2 boards per 36 this season. He’d need only 37.7 minutes at that rate to hit the over here, and he’s had five, six, and seven rebounds the last three games.
We’re projecting Lopez at 35.6 minutes and still giving Lopez 6.7 boards, and I think that minutes projection is about five too low. With Antetokounmpo’s status up in the air, the Bucks will need even more from Lopez. He’ll play as many minutes as he can handle, and though I think this one will be close, I love that +135. I’d play down to +115.