NBA Sharp Report: Bucks-Rockets Headline 3 NBA Games Drawing Smart Money on Wednesday
Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez
- Sharp action has hit three of Wednesday's NBA games, including Bucks-Rockets (8 p.m. ET on ESPN).
- Our Sports Insights' Bet Signals help reveal which way the smart money is going.
I must have said it about a thousand times by now, but I’ll say it again: Sharps don’t care about how meaningful or exciting a game is — if it has value, they will bet it regardless.
That can lead to frustration for bettors who care about sharp action but also want to bet the biggest games of the night, so if you’re one of those bettors, Wednesday night is your night.
The three NBA games drawing the most sharp attention Wednesday happen to be the three most heavily bet game on the slate, including Bucks-Rockets at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN).
>> All odds as of 2 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Washington Wizards
7 p.m. ET | NBCS-PH
Sharp angle: Wizards (moved from +2.5 to +3.5)
If you didn’t catch it on Tuesday night, the Sixers put up 132 points in the first of this two-game series, easily covering their 8-point spread in a 17-point win.
So as you’d expect, Philly opened at -2.5 for Wednesday. Wait what?
Of course, the switch to Washington’s home court is the reason behind the line change, but 83% of bettors as of writing (see live data here) are still licking their chops at the opportunity to take the Sixers as such short favorites after Tuesday night.
Sharps, however, aren’t so concerned with a one-game sample. In fact, they’re using it as an opportunity to profit off an inflated number.
While they didn’t attack the line right away, wiseguys hopped on the Wizards’ train after first letting the public drive the line up to a better number. Per our Sports Insights’ Bet Signals, pros have hit Washington three times — once at +4 and twice at +3.
The 17% of bettors behind Washington are also accounting for a significantly higher percentage of actual money (27%), meaning that bigger bets — the ones more likely to be made by sharps — are backing the points.
San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies
8 p.m. ET | FS-SW
Sharp angle: Grizzlies (moved from +3.5 to +2.5)
The line movement in this game has been a much clearer reflection of the sharp action hitting it.
Only 21% of bets accounting for 24% of dollars are behind Memphis on Wednesday night, yet the Grizzlies are down to +2.5 from their opener of +3.5.
Sportsbooks aren’t in the business of losing money, so there’s no reason for them to lower this line and help the majority of the customers … unless they’re being influenced by their sharper players.
In this case, our Bet Signals show three cases of professional action hitting the Grizzlies at +3, helping drop this line to its current number.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Houston Rockets
8 p.m. ET | ESPN
Sharp angle: Bucks (moved from +1 to -1.5)
In what’s on pace to be Wednesday’s most heavily bet game, the Rockets opened as a 1-point favorite at home against the Bucks. As of Wednesday afternoon, however, it’s the Bucks who are laying 1.5 points.
That line move has come thanks in no part to the public, as 60% of bettors are backing the home team. Instead, early action from sharps caused oddsmakers to move this line, and they haven’t looked back since.
Two Bet Signals hit the Bucks at +1 soon after the line was released, and by late Tuesday night, Milwaukee was listed -1.5 across most of the market.
Of course, with such early movement, this game serves as a good reminder that sharps bet numbers rather than teams. If you’re looking to tail this play, keep in mind that sharp action has really only been apparent when the Bucks were laying points.