NBA Sharp Report: Pros Doubling Down on Celtics-Cavs, Timberwolves-Grizzlies
Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Marc Gasol and Karl-Anthony Towns
- Both Celtics-Cavs (7 p.m. ET) and T'Wolves-Grizzles have drawn some significant action from wiseguys on Tuesday.
- Sports Insights' Bet Signals, along with betting market percentages, help reveal which way the smart money is going.
Four Sharp Report plays on an eight-game NBA slate is fairly typical. Generally, though, that means breaking down four different matchups.
Sharps have found value on four plays coming from only two games Tuesday night: Celtics-Cavs (7 p.m. ET) and T’Wolves-Grizzlies (8 p.m. ET). Let’s take a look.
>> All odds as of 1:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets.
Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers
7 p.m. ET | NBCS-BOS
Sharp angles: Cavaliers (moved from +12.5 to +11), Under (moved from 214.5 to 210.5)
Kyrie Irving will miss tonight’s game for Boston with a hip injury, but the Celtics (34-19) are still double-digit favorites against the 11-42 Cavs.
According to sharps, though, perhaps they shouldn’t be so heavily favored.
Following the announcement that Kyrie would be out, there was a bit of disagreement among sportsbooks, but most had this spread in the 12.5-point range. Since then, it’s fallen to 11 despite 74% of bettors taking Boston.
But while the Cavs have been unable to attract a high number of supporters, they haven’t struggled to land some big money.
At the time of writing, 60% of actual dollars being wagered on the game are hitting Cleveland. That means bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps — are taking the points.
Cleveland has also drawn two Sports Insights Bet Signals, revealing sharp action causing market-wide line movement at +12.5 and +12.
One bet, however, wasn’t quite enough for wiseguys in this game. They’ve also been hammering away at the under, causing it to drop four points from its opening number.
In this case, the public has been in agreement with sharps, as 61% of overall bets on the total have hit the under. But as was the case with the point spread, those bets have accounted for a significantly higher percentage of bets (75%).
Another three Bet Signals have hit the under (at totals of 215, 214 and 212) to confirm that sharp activity is moving this line.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Memphis Grizzlies
8 p.m. ET | FS-N+
Sharp angles: Grizzlies (moved from +1.5 to +1), Over (moved from 203 to 206.5)
When these two teams met less than a week ago, oddsmakers closed the total at 207. That game wound up going into overtime, and still neither team reached 100 points (Minnesota won, 99-97). Perhaps that’s why oddsmakers opened tonight’s over/under at a notably lower 203.5.
As of Tuesday afternoon, however, this total is knocking on the door of last Wednesday’s number.
Fifty-nine percent of bets on the total are hitting the over, but that’s nowhere near enough support for books to raise a number by more than three points … unless sharps are involved.
Per Sports Insights’ Bet Signals, wiseguys hit the over at 203.5, and came back for more at 206, showing just how much value they saw in that opening number.
They’ve apparently also seen some value on the side. After losing by two on the road, albeit in overtime, the Grizzlies opened at +1.5 in the home rematch.
While I’d be surprised if sharps were basing this play off of last week’s game — because of the movement we’ve seen on the total — it appears that they think Memphis’ home-court advantage is a wee bit stronger than oddsmakers do.
Forty-one percent of bettors generating 46% of actual dollars have hit the Grizzlies. After an initial move across the fence to -1, Memphis has settled back in at +1 — still a half-point lower than what was originally posted.
To top it all off, the Grizzlies have drawn three Bet Signals of their own, confirming that wiseguys are behind the line move.