Sharp Money Moving Monday’s Jazz-Grizzlies Over/Under
Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Utah Jazz head coach Quin Snyder
- Professional bettors are getting down on the Utah Jazz-Memphis Grizzlies over/under tonight (8 p.m. ET).
- Using The Action Network's betting tools, we analyze how wiseguys are betting this NBA matchup.
We’ve seen an Over renaissance in the NBA so far this season, with high-scoring games littering box scores like the 1980s. This has been a result of the rule change to reset the shot clock and teams committing to pushing the pace and shooting more three-pointers.
However, the books have caught up to this new trend and the public Over party looks to be … over.
Through Nov. 2, Overs went 73-50 (59.3%), winning +19.44 units. However, since that time they’re gone 23-42 (35.4%), losing -20.34 units.
After analyzing Monday’s nine-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed one NBA over/under bet that professionals are focusing on tonight– Utah Jazz vs Memphis Grizzlies (8 p.m. ET.)
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Utah Jazz at Memphis Grizzlies
8 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Under (205.5 to 203)
With scoring on the rise this season, we’ve seen countless over/unders in the 220 and above range. However, this total was set at the insanely low number of 205.5.
The public says it’s bound to go over, but sharps aren’t taking the bait.
Despite 66% of bets going Over, the total has fallen from 205.5 to 203. Why would the bookmakers drop the line to give public Over backers an easier shot at covering?
Because wiseguys have been hammering the Under (205.5 and 204.5) all day, triggering four separate steam and reverse line moves per Sports Insights’ Bet Signals.
This overload of sharp action caused the books to drop the total to 203.
The Under also features a profitable bets vs. dollars discrepancy– only 34% of bets are on the Under but it accounts for 53% of dollars — further evidence of smart money siding with a low-scoring game.
An added bonus for Under backers: Curtis Blair is the lead ref. Since 2005, Under have hit at a 55.2% clip with Blair in zebra stripes.
Memphis also happens to be the best defense (in terms of points allowed per game) in the NBA and the third-lowest scoring offense in the league as well (103.1 PPG).
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