Sharp, Public Bettors on Same Side of Warriors vs. Rockets Game 6 Over/Under

Up 3-2 in the Western Conference semifinals, the Warriors head back to Houston without Kevin Durant (calf) tonight. As you can probably imagine, taking out one of the best players in the league is going to have an effect in the betting market.

In their previous two home games (Games 3 and 4), the Rockets closed as 3.5- and 1-point favorites, respectively. And in both cases, the over/under closed at 219.5. Tonight, however, Houston is up to -7.5 facing elimination.

Perhaps more interesting is that the earliest books to market opened this total way down at 210.

So, how are professionals betting this over/under?

The total has since been bet up to 214.5 thanks to some hefty market percentages, but still remains considerably lower than what had become standard with KD in the lineup. The over is drawing 78% of bettors accounting for 84% of money being wagered on the total, which helps explain the rise.

And according to the tools at Sports Insights, it's not just public Joes that are hammering away at the over. Sharp bettors are also under the impression that oddsmakers may have over-adjusted for Durant's absence.

Three Sports Insights Bet Signals have been triggered on the over, revealing three instances of market-wide line movement as a result of sharp action. We have yet to see any indication of smart money buying back the number by taking the under, but it's worth noting that the most recent "over signal" came at a total of 212.5.

In recent years it's been quite profitable to bet the under when these two high-scoring teams meet. Since the 2013-14 season, their matchups have gone under the total 28 out of 43 times — good for a 65.1% win rate.

If sharps' inclination about tonight is correct, that win rate should see a tiny drop.