NBA Sharp Report: Bulls-Warriors Among 4 Games Drawing Smart Money
Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Zach Lavine
- Sharp bettors have found several spots they deem valuable on tonight's NBA slate.
- Four games in particular, headlined by Bulls-Warriors (10:30 p.m. ET), have drawn some significant smart money.
- Sports Insights' Bet Signals help reveal Friday's sharp plays.
Nine games will tipoff in the NBA tonight, and sharps are liking what they’ve been finding across the board. Almost every game has seen at least a hint of wiseguy activity, and a few have drawn significant one-sided action.
With start times ranging from 7:30 to 10:30 p.m. ET, here are the four games being hit heavily by sharps.
>> All odds as of 2 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets.
Brooklyn Nets @ Toronto Raptors
7:30 p.m. ET | YES
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 219.5 to 222)
Perhaps the easiest way of locating sharp action is reverse line movement — when the line moves away from the popular side. Unless sharps are hitting the unpopular bet, there’d be no reason for sportsbooks to let the majority of their customers have a better chance of winning.
In this case, however, there’s no reverse line movement to make our lives easy.
Tonight’s Nets-Raptors matchup has drawn 55% of bettors to the over, which has risen almost three points since opening, but our tools indicate that those bettors have been of the sharper variety.
For starters, four Sports Insights Bet Signals have been triggered on the over, revealing four cases of market-wide line shifts from sharp action.
On top of that, the 55% on the over has generated 84% of actual money being wagered on the total. That means bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps — are expecting a high-scoring game.
Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves
8 p.m. ET | FS-N
Sharp angle: Mavericks (moved from +5.5 to +5)
Here’s a case where reverse line movement does the heavy lifting for us.
Only 34% of bets are behind Dallas, but its line has fallen from +5.5 to +5. Assuming no other factors are in play — most notably injuries — the only reason for the line fall should be sharp action.
Confirming that indication are Sports Insights’ Bet Signals, which have revealed three cases of wiseguy activity on the Mavs so far (two at +5.5, and one at the current number of +5).
Dallas has also drawn a slightly higher percentage of money (39%) than bets. While that doesn’t necessarily give sportsbooks a monetary liability, it does further indicate that sharper bettors are taking the points.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Houston Rockets
8 p.m. ET | FS-OH
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 217.5 to 217)
The 34% of bettors on tonight’s Cavs-Rockets under have generated an impressive 74% of actual money wagered. As a result, oddsmakers have been forced to lower this total even though that gives a majority of their customers a better number.
While such a discrepancy is almost always a result of sharp action, a confirmation from Bet Signals still doesn’t hurt. In this case, two signals have hit the under since Friday morning, though it’s worth noting for anyone looking to tail this play that both came at higher totals (218 and 218.5).
Chicago Bulls @ Golden State Warriors
10:30 p.m. ET | NBCS-CHI
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 221.5 to 219.5)
Bettors are practically split down the middle on this total. At the time of writing, a slight 51% majority are backing the over. Sharps, however, have made their thoughts clear.
The 49% of bettors on the under have accounted for 82% of dollars on the total, and two Sports Insights Bet Signals have confirmed that the money is sharp.
That’s caused oddsmakers to drop this total two points from its opening number.