NBA Sharp Betting Picks (Jan. 28): Celtics vs. Heat Among 3 Games Drawing Pro Action Tuesday
Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Jaylen Brown and Jimmy Butler
Sharps have made the most of the eight games from which to pick on Tuesday evening.
Highlighted by a nationally televised Celtics-Heat matchup (8 p.m. ET, TNT) and including a Wizards-Bucks game that’s pushing for the title of highest over/under in our database, pros have come down hard on three games tonight.
Let’s take a look at how they’re betting those two, as well as a somewhat surprising spread in Nuggets vs. Grizzlies.
Odds as of Tuesday at 1:35 p.m. ET. Check out FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Celtics vs. Heat
8 p.m. ET
The Celtics don’t often find themselves on the unpopular side of a spread. In fact, this season they’ve received a minority of spread bets only three times in 45 games (for what it’s worth, they covered in all three).
Tonight, with Jayson Tatum doubtful on the road against a Heat team 1.5 games ahead in the East, the Celtics will be unpopular for a fourth time, as only 36% of bettors are backing Boston.
Those bettors, however, have generated 59% of actual money to this point, which is significant considering that bigger bets usually come from sharper bettors.
Confirming that to be the case, four Sports Insights Bet Signals — which track and record instances of market activity caused by pro action — have hit the Celtics to just one on Miami, driving books from +2 to +1.
Sharp angle: Celtics (moved from +2 to +1)
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies
8 p.m. ET
At 22-24, the Grizzlies are hanging onto the last spot in the Western Conference playoff race. But against the third-place Nuggets (32-14) — even without Jamal Murray and Paul Millsap — it’s going to be tough to convince bettors that Memphis should be favored.
Well, most bettors.
After oddsmakers opened this game at a pick’em, sharp action on the Grizzlies — indicated by eight SI Bet Signals — has convinced books to move the line in Memphis’ favor.
And once again, the bigger bets point to the sharp side, as the 30% backing of the Grizzlies has generated 47% of money.
Sharp angle: Grizzlies (moved from PK to -1.5)
Wizards vs. Bucks
8 p.m. ET
An NBA over/under of 240 is just too high, right? It sure feels that way at least.
Nevertheless, oddsmakers opened this total right on that mark, and even with 56% of bets landing on the under, the total shot up all the way to 244! That put it just one point shy of the highest total we’ve ever tracked in a regular season NBA game … until Giannis Antetokounmpo was ruled out.
Giannis’ absence (announced a bit after 1:30 p.m. ET) brought the total back down to its opening range at most books (239.5/240), but even since then it’s ticked back up to 240.5/241.
Each of the four SI Bet Signals on the over did come prior to the announcement, making it difficult to confirm whether sharps are still finding value.
As of 2 p.m. ET, the 44% of bettors on the over have accounted for 76% of money so far.
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 240 to 244, 239.5 to 240.5)