NBA Sharp Report: Pros Betting Warriors-Knicks, Two Other Friday Night Games
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry
- Wiseguys are betting three NBA games on Friday, headlined by Warriors-Knicks at Madison Square Garden (7:30 p.m. ET).
- The Warriors are listed as 12-point road favorites with an over/under of 226.5
- Sharps are also betting Mavericks-Raptors (7:30 p.m. ET) and Nets-Pelicans (8 p.m. ET).
Professional bettors enter every new day with a clean slate. It doesn’t matter if they swept the board or got taken to the woodshed the night before.
The blueprint never changes. Wiseguys cover up the names and let the data tell them where the value lies. Sharps bet numbers, not players and teams.
After analyzing Friday’s seven-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three NBA bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:30 p.m. and 8 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Dallas Mavericks at Toronto Raptors
7:30 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 229 to 223.5)
Overs have been cashing at an absurd rate to start the season (38-27, 58.5%). However, we’re starting to see a market correction (11-15, 42.3% since Monday).
This signals that the books are catching up to the new rule changes and to teams committing to “push the pace.”
This total opened at 229. Currently 55% of bets and 87% of dollars are going Under. This indicates moderate public support but heavy wiseguy action as well.
Pros at Greek, Carib and BetOnline all hammered the Under from 229 to 225, triggering four separate reverse line moves. This overload of smart money has pushed the total all the way down to 223.5.
The Under also fits the profitable Bet Labs PRO system Unders on Good Home Over Teams (58.9%, +114.73 units, 14.7% return on investment since 2005).
Golden State Warriors at New York Knicks
7:30 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 229 to 226.5)
Whenever the Warriors take the court, the public hammers the Over. Books know this and will shade the total toward the Over, forcing public bettors to take overpriced numbers.
Tonight is a perfect example.
Currently 70% of bets are going Over, yet they account for 56% of dollars. Meanwhile, the total has fallen from 229 to 226.5.
This bet vs. dollar discrepancy and heavy reverse line movement signals smart money has gotten down on the contrarian Under.
Sharps at CRIS, Bovada, Sportsbook and BetOnline all hammered the Under at 229 and 229.5.
Since 2005, contrarian unders (40% or fewer) with RLM have won at a 53.7% clip and produced +131.56 units with a 4.9% ROI.
Brooklyn Nets at New Orleans Pelicans
8 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Nets (+9.5)
Anthony Davis and the Pelicans have quietly become a public darling. They’re 3-0 and also the top-scoring team in the NBA, averaging an absurd 132 points per game.
Tonight, they’re at home against the 2-2 Nets. The public sees an easy blowout win. Not the sharps.
Brooklyn is one of the most contrarian plays of the night (the Nets are getting only 28% of bets), but it’s also receiving sharp action in the form of money (40% of dollars) and three bet signals.
Essentially, we’re seeing a sharp line freeze on Brooklyn. Despite heavy Pelicans betting, the line has remained frozen at +9.5 because of wiseguy liability on the road dog.
It doesn’t hurt that October is the best time of year to bet contrarian (<35% bets) road dogs: 10-6 against the spread (ATS) this season, 59.3% ATS since 2005.