NBA Sharp Betting Picks (Feb. 10): Spurs vs. Nuggets Among 6 Games Drawing Pro Action Tonight
Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Bam Adebayo
A nine-game slate presents itself in the NBA tonight, and boy have sharps come out to play.
Generally a slate of this size results in a rundown of about three games drawing heavy sharp action. But tonight, six of those nine matchups have caught the attention of pro bettors, including a couple from out West that could have an effect on the conference playoff picture.
Let’s take a look at the lines being moved by smart money tonight, starting with the Nets-Pacers over/under.
Odds as of Monday at 12:50 p.m. ET. In New Jersey or Indiana? Check out FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Nets vs. Pacers
7 p.m. ET
The sharp play on this total has been about as obvious as they come — something that can be said about more than just this game tonight.
Sixty-four percent of bets have hit the over, which isn’t surprising given the public’s tendency to root for offense. A bit more surprising, maybe, is that the total has fallen despite the over’s popularity. After opening at 220.5, it’s down to 217.5 across the market.
Part of the reason is that the 36% of under tickets have generated 75% of actual money hitting the total. Obviously, that’s going to create a monetary liability, but perhaps more importantly, it tells us that the under is receiving much bigger bets — the ones more likely to come from sharps.
Three Sports Insights Bet Signals have confirmed three separate waves of smart money landing on the under (at 220.5, 220 and 219.5), helping pushing oddsmakers to the current total.
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 220.5 to 217.5)
Timberwolves vs. Raptors
7:30 p.m. ET
Unlike most of the other plays you’ll find on tonight’s report, this one doesn’t come as a disagreement to the public side. And based on the line comparison from opening until now, you wouldn’t necessarily think sharps have taken a stand.
Fifty-three percent of bettors have taken the T’Wolves, who opened as 9-point underdogs, and find themselves at around +9/9.5 at the time of writing. Sharps, however, were patient with the number, and didn’t strike until it reached a level they liked.
An initial jump from +9 to +10 was enough for pros to buy back on Minnesota, triggering two SI Bet Signals at +10 and another at +9.5. As a result, some books have dropped back to the opening number, while many are still hanging at 9.5.
Once again, the bet-vs.-money discrepancy has pointed out the sharp side, as the 53% backing of the Wolves has generated 74% of spread money.
Sharp angle: Timberwolves (moved from +10 to +9)
Kings vs. Bucks
8 p.m. ET
This line saw a pretty significant change immediately following the update that Giannis Antetokounmpo was questionable — which is expected for one of the game’s best.
According to sharps, though, that line fall wasn’t enough. That, or they really don’t like his chances of actually playing this evening.
Seventy-two percent of bets are still going the Bucks’ way to this point, but they’ve generated just 24% of actual money. As a result, this spread has come down from -12 to -10 throughout the early part of the day — all since the Giannis news was made public.
Two SI Bet Signals at +10.5 have confirmed sharps to still be finding value on the Kings, getting oddsmakers to make the most recent half-point drop to the current line.
Sharp angle: Kings (moved from +12 to +10)
Jazz vs. Mavericks
8:30 p.m. ET
I could copy and paste what’s written above for Nets vs. Pacers, and it would come pretty darn close to telling the story of this game.
In this case, 37% of bets accounting for 70% of money have landed on the under, again revealing the opinions of bigger bettors. Four Bet Signals on the under (ranging from 222 to 219) have confirmed those bigger bettors to be sharps, and oddsmakers have had no choice but to follow their lead.
The total has fallen from its highest openers of 222 down to a consensus 217.5.
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 222 to 217.5)
Spurs vs. Nuggets
9 p.m. ET
And now we enter broken-record territory. This total has seen an almost identical move, going from 221.5 to 216, and it’s once again come as a result of bigger, sharper bettors on an unpopular side.
While not as wide of a discrepancy, the 29% of under bettors in this case have accounted for 48% of actual money, and five more Bet Signals — though the most recent one was 219 — on the under have pushed this line down significantly from the opener.
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 221.5 to 216)
Heat vs. Warriors
10:30 p.m. ET
Back to the spread for the final game of the night.
This has been a pretty easy decision to make for most bettors, which makes sense. The Heat are 34-18, in fourth place in the East, and while Jimmy Butler’s status is still uncertain, they’re laying just six points against the last-place, 12-41 Warriors.
But even with their 72% backing, the Heat have come down from that 6-point number to just -5.
Four SI Bet Signals have hit the Warriors (35% of money), though it’s worth noting that all four came at +6. It’s also worth mentioning that on at least one instance, a 4.5-point line was reached and resulted in sharp buyback on the Heat.
Still, there’s no question as to which side has taken on the brunt of the smart money.
Sharp angle: Warriors (moved from +6 to +5)