NBA Sharp Betting, System Picks (Tuesday, August 4): Celtics vs. Heat

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Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Kemba Walker and Jimmy Butler

Celtics vs. Heat Betting Odds

Celtics odds -3 [Bet Now]
Heat odds +3 [Bet Now]
Moneyline -150/+130 [Bet Now]
Over/Under 219.5 [Bet Now]
Time 6:30 p.m. ET
TV TNT

Odds via PointsBet, where you can get $250 FREE instantly after signing up AND your bets automatically sync to the Action app. Learn more about BetSync here.


Tuesday’s NBA slate is already underway (as the bubble sports continue to spoil us with daytime action), but that’s not to suggest that betting market isn’t still active surrounding the rest of tonight’s matchups.

In fact, sharp bettors have still been picking out value on this evening’s Celtics vs. Heat matchup, causing movement on both the spread and total, and our PRO Systems have aligned with their take on the latter.

Celtics vs. Heat Sharp Betting Picks

Opening as relatively short favorites (-3.5), the Celtics have unsurprisingly been the more popular side of this spread. They’ve drawn 71% of bettors since this game was made available.

But even with that backing, they’re less favored than they were to start the day. Most sportsbooks have them currently listed as just 3-point favorites.

As you may have guessed, that line move has therefore come as a result of sharp bettors taking the Heat — a much more legitimate concern for sportsbooks than a 71% backing.

Sports Insights Bet Signals — which track and record instances of sharp action in the market — have triggered four moves on Miami at +3.5 throughout the day today, getting us to the current consensus.

Sharp angle: Heat (moved from +3.5 to +3)

[Bet $20+ on the Heat at PointsBet and Win $125 if they make at least one 3-pointer]

The over/under has also seen a fairly significant change as a result of smart money.

While there’s no real “unpopular side” in this case (49% of bets have landed on the under), the total has fallen from 223.5 to 219.5 — a move that wouldn’t be necessary if oddsmakers shared the same respect for bettors on either side of the number.

Another three SI Bet Signals have been triggered on the under (ranging from 223.5 to 221.5), confirming that sharps are in fact behind this move as well.

And if history is an indication, they’ve got good reason to be.

The game fits one of our Action PRO Systems: “Under on Good Home Over Team,” which has hit at a 57% clip at the closing number since 2005.

Sharp angle, system match: Under (moved from 223.5 to 219.5)

[Bet $20+ on the Heat at PointsBet and Win $125 if they make at least one 3-pointer]

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