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New York Knicks 2021 NBA Win Total Odds & Pick: Hold Your Nose and Take the Over

New York Knicks 2021 NBA Win Total Odds & Pick: Hold Your Nose and Take the Over article feature image

Chris Schwegler/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: RJ Barrett #9 of the New York Knicks.

Check out this post for updated season win total and this post for my other 29 season win total picks.

Knicks Win Total Odds

Best Line
82-Game Projection
Over: 21.5 (FanDuel) [Bet Now]
24.5 Wins
Under: 23.5 (PointsBet) [Bet Now]
27 Wins

The Case for the Over

Obi Toppin is my Rookie of the Year pick. I think the kid is a bucket and is going to earn the minutes he needs and play enough under new Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau to get the counting stats.

When looking at the overs for bad teams, I like to start with “how many NBA rotation players are there” even if the bench guys are starting. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Austin Rivers, Julius Randle, Reggie Bullock, Elfrid Payton, Mitchell Robinson.

That gets us to six guys, even if none of the young players improve.

Look at how low this number is. Lowest win total on the board here for the Knicks. The lowest numbers on the board went 6-4 in the past 10 years before last season. Some of those were openly tanking seasons, some were the Nets who gave away all their first round picks.

The Knicks are not openly tanking this season — Thibs doesn’t do that.

Thibs’ Bulls team went over in his first year in Chicago, and his Timberwolves team under in his first season in Minnesota. However, part of that was expected: The Bulls a good, fun, underrated team. The Wolves were expected to make a leap under Thibodeau after his success in Chicago.

We need the Knicks to win 28% of their games, still be a bottom-five team and find 22 wins vs. the various bottom dwellers and random upsets.

The Case for the Under

It’s the Knicks.

No, seriously, it’s the Knicks.

Under in five of the past six seasons. Under in seven of the past nine. Under in nine of the past 12. The Knicks.

Austin Rivers is the second-best NBA player on that team, most likely. If Toppin pops, then maybe third. They have guys who get stats without any impact. That’s mostly their roster: Payton, Randle, Mitchell Robinson to a degree.

Is a rookie, who isn’t on the level of Zion Williamson, Ja Morant, etc. going to carry the Knicks to mid-20’s?

As always, if the saying is “teams will beat up on the bad East teams” then those bad East teams have to win very few games. The Knicks are absolutely a bad East team.

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New York Knicks Win Total Bet

I regret to inform you that I am betting the Knicks over. I know, it’s a horrible decision. Please respect my privacy at this time.

[Bet now at FanDuel and get a $1,000 risk-free bet.]

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