Sharp Action Shaping Nuggets vs. Blazers Game 6 Point Spread
Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Damian Lillard and Will Barton
- Just as was the case in Games 3 and 4 in Portland, the Blazers opened as a 4-point favorite for Game 6, and once again, that line has moved off the opener.
- Sports Insights Bet Signals and betting market percentages help explain how sharps have contributed to that line move.
The Nuggets-Trail Blazers Western Conference semifinal series heads back to the Moda Center in Portland for Game 6 (10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). The Blazers have been favored in both of their previous home games this series, by spreads of -5 and -3, respectively.
Interestingly enough, both games were opened at the same line, Portland -4, before bettors swayed oddsmakers in either direction.
Tonight looks to be bringing more of the same pattern. Openers varied a bit more by book for Game 6, but those that opened at -4 in the first two Portland-hosted matchups once again released the Blazers at -4 as their initial line.
And just as was the case for Games 3 and 4, bettors have shifted the spread off its opener, but this time it appears that sharps were among those involved.
The overall betting population is split on this one, with Denver holding just a slight edge at 52% of bets. But despite the split, oddsmakers have been convinced to drop the spread from Portland -4 to -3.5.
Why the line fall? Well, betting percentages can be a bit deceiving as related to a sportsbook’s liability. In fact, Denver’s 52% backing has generated 66% of actual money being wagered on the matchup.
But on top of the liability that creates, it also shows how bigger bettors are playing the spread. And which players are likely to be making the bigger bets? Sharps.
Sure enough, Sports Insights’ Bet Signals have triggered two steam moves on the Nuggets at +4 to confirm the wiseguy activity. Steam refers to a sudden, market-wide line shift that is caused by significant professional action hitting the same side over a short period of time.
It should be noted, though, that with both moves coming at +4, there’s been no indication that sharps are still finding value in the Nuggets’ current number. If the line does make its way back up again, however, don’t be surprised to see sharps pounce on a +4 once again.