Nuggets-Spurs Over/Under Again Drawing Sharp Action

The first three games of the Nuggets-Spurs series have seen combined point totals of 197, 219 and, most recently, 226 in Game 3. That's an average of 214 points per game, but today's Game 4 over/under opened a few points below that average at 211.

According to sharps, that number presented plenty of value.

Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs

5:30 p.m. ET | TNT

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 211 to 208)

Despite the past two games hitting the over with relative ease, pros aren't letting the small sample affect their strategy. If anything, it's given them a better number with which to work, as the opener of 211 would've been the highest total of the series so far.

Per Sports Insights' Bet Signals, wiseguys caused market-wide downward movement on the total four times. They hit the under at totals ranging from 211 to 209, causing oddsmakers to readjust to the current 208 listing. Some books are even down to 207.5.

On top of the Bet Signals, this under also boasts an impressive bet vs. money discrepancy. While only 42% of bettors are behind it, those bettors have generated 60% of actual dollars being wagered on the total. That means bigger bets — the ones more likely to be made by sharps — are among that 42%.

We haven't seen any indication of sharp activity on the over, but with a significant line move comes the opportunity for bettors who got in early to take a chance on a middle opportunity. Plus, if sharps believe the true total should be around the current number, they may find value on the over if the line continues to fall.

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