Thunder-Nuggets Betting Preview: Will OKC Cover as a Road Favorite?

Dec 14, 2018 04:45 PM EST
Credit:

Photo credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Russell Westbrook

Betting odds: Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets

  • Spread: Thunder -1.5
  • Over/Under: 218
  • Time: 10 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN

>> All odds as of 11:30 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets


The 18-9 Denver Nuggets, who will again be without both Gary Harris and Paul Millsap, will host the 17-9 Oklahoma City Thunder. The Nuggets  have been off since Monday — does the extra rest impact tonight’s spread at all? Our analysts dive into tonight’s matchup.


Trends to Know

Denver last played on Monday and has had four days to prepare for OKC at home. So we have a good team (win rate of at least 60%) that is well rested (four or more days between games) and playing at home — advantage Nuggets, right?

It really depends on when the games is played. Since 2005, teams in this situation have gone 76-101-6 (43%) ATS in the first half of the season but 75-63-5 (54%) ATS in the second half. Good teams at home with extra rest, like the Nuggets, are overvalued early in the season when the grind of an 82-game schedule is less likely to impact opponents. — John Ewing

On Wednesday night, the Thunder lost on the road to the Pelicans and now face the Nuggets in Denver before returning back home.

The Thunder have one of the best records in the Western Conference, but traveling to Denver is never easy. Since 2005, teams with a win rate of 60% or higher traveling to Denver to face the Nuggets on at least the second game of a road trip are 34-53-2 ATS (39.1%), failing to cover the spread by 2.5 PPG, losing bettors 20.4 units.

In this spot, no road location is less profitable for teams than Denver, with second-place Miami a full five units behind. — Evan Abrams


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