Blazers-Warriors Betting Preview: Keep Fading Golden State?

Betting odds: Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors

• Spread: Warriors -2
• Over/Under: 218.5
• Time: 10:30 p.m. ET

The reeling Golden State Warriors without Stephen Curry will host the excellent 12-6 Portland Trail Blazers. The Dubs have gone 0-6 against the spread over the past two weeks. Will they turn things around or should you keep fading the defending champs? Our analysts discuss.

Mears: Why I'm (Still) Fading the Dubs

Since I wrote this piece about Stephen Curry being undervalued by the betting market a couple weeks ago, the Warriors haven't covered a single game. But has the market adjusted?

This line of Warriors -2 suggests that Curry is worth about five points to the spread, which I continue to believe is too low.

But I'll reiterate my main point of that piece two weeks ago: Oddsmakers aren't incentivized to peg the true value of Curry — they just want equal action on both sides.

That means the public has continually undervalued Curry, and I think that's the case again. The offense has completely tanked with him gone: With him off the floor, the Warriors have been 16.2 points per 100 possessions worse (95th percentile). The offense has been 12.1 points/100 worse (93rd percentile); the defense has been 4.1 points/100 worse (74th percentile).

Further, the spread also doesn't seem to properly account for the absences of Alfonzo McKinnie or Draymond Green, both of whom have already been ruled out.

The Warriors could certainly get hot, but historical trends suggest that the betting market is still way too high on the Warriors without their star point guard.

I'll take the Blazers +2 without hesitation. — Bryan Mears

Betting Trends to Know

The Warriors have now lost four consecutive games, the first time this has happened in the Steve Kerr era. Bettors shouldn’t expect Golden State to bounce back.

Following a loss, the Warriors are only 33-35 ATS under Kerr in the regular season, per our Bet Labs data.

Golden State lost 123-95 to Oklahoma City on Wednesday. This was the 13th regular season game the Warriors have lost by 20 or more points under Kerr. The team has gone 5-7 ATS in its next game. — John Ewing

The Blazers will end their six-game road trip tonight in Golden State. Under Kerr, the Warriors have dominated opponents at Oracle on the end of road trips…

• 4th game or later of road trip: 21-11 ATS (65.6%, +6.1 ATS diff)
• 5th game or later of road trip: 8-2 ATS (80.0%, +10.0 ATS diff)

And here's Damian Lillard’s career against the Warriors, presented without comment…

• Overall: 6-23 straight-up (won two straight at home)
• On road: 1-13 straight-up (only win came five years ago yesterday)

The Warriors' core issue during their four-game losing streak is that they have yet to record 25 assists in any of the four games.

Under Kerr, the Warriors have had lefewers than 25 assists in four straight games only one other time in the regular season, back in December of 2014 when they did it in five straight games.

In the playoffs, the Warriors did this in the 2015 and 2016 NBA Finals vs. Cavaliers and in last year’s Western Conference Finals vs. the Rockets. — Evan Abrams

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.