Freedman’s Favorite NBA Player Prop (Feb. 21): Will Rajon Rondo Score More Than 10 Points?

Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.

Also follow me in The Action Network app, where each day I post additional, official player prop picks: Today we have a glorious day of sports betting with 11-game NHL and six-game NBA slates on tap.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

114-96-9, +21.19 Units

• NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
• NBA: 42-33-2, +5.30 Units
• NHL: 40-42-6, +2.48 Units
• Golf: 3-4-1, -0.50 Units
• NASCAR: 3-2-0. +1.55 Units
• NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.00 Units
• Exotics: 5-0-0. +2.64 Units

Freedman’s Favorite NBA Player Prop for Thursday (Feb. 21): Rajon Rondo Over/Under 10.5 Points

• Over 10.5: -105
• Under 10.5: -125

Thank the sports gawds that the NBA is back. Hockey is great, but I want some variety in my prop-betting diet.

The nightcap for today's NBA slate is the Lakers-Rockets game (10:30 p.m. ET, TNT), and Los Angeles point guard Rajon Rondo stands out in the FantasyLabs Props Tool.

We have Rondo projected for 7.9 points, so there's value on the under.

For the season Rondo has 8.9 points on 28.0 minutes per game, and we have him projected for 26.0 minutes in the FantasyLabs NBA Models, so if Rondo hits the over, it probably won't be because of enhanced playing time.

With LeBron James on the court this season, Rondo has averaged just 8.3 points per 36 minutes (per the FantasyLabs On/Off Tool).

Rondo's circumstances are also subpar: He'll likely face Chris Paul for many of his possessions, and while Paul is no longer an NBA All-Defensive first-team player, he's eighth among points guards with a 0.93 Defensive Real Plus-Minus. Additionally, the Lakers have a slate-worst -5.4 pace differential.

At 10.5, I'd bet the under down to -145. At -125, I'd bet the under to 10.0.

The Pick: Under 10.5 (-125)

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.