Sixers vs. Nets Game 5 Betting Preview: Will Philly Continue to Cover?

Sixers vs. Nets Game 5 Betting Preview: Will Philly Continue to Cover? article feature image

Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Joel Embiid

Game 5 Betting Odds: Brooklyn Nets at Philadelphia 76ers

  • Spread: Sixers -8.5
  • Over/Under: 230
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: TNT
  • Series Score: Sixers lead 3-1

>> All odds as of 6 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and live win probabilities on your bets.

After dropping Game 1 at home, the Sixers have rebounded by winning three straight, including both in Brooklyn.

They’re back in Philly to close out the series as 8.5-point favorites. Our analysts dive into the matchup and odds.

Betting Trends to Know

The Nets have lost three consecutive games since winning Game 1. Since 2005, teams that have lost at least three straight games and are listed as an underdog in their next playoff game have gone 41-58-2 (41%) against the spread. John Ewing

Thinking about making a play on the Nets moneyline at +280? Sure, they closed at +286 on the moneyline in Game 1, their lone win in the series. But they’re 1-13 straight-up as a 2-1 underdog since Christmas. Evan Abrams

Joel Embiid has had a heck of an impact on this series, but it’s come mostly on the defensive side of the floor. Abrams

Sixers With Embiid On/Off Floor vs. Nets

  • On: 77 minutes, +17.3 Net Rating, 97.5 Def Rating, 36.7% Opp FG%
  • Off: 115 minutes, +1.2 Net Rating, 113.9 Def Rating, 47.2% Opp FG%

Mears: My Thoughts on Game 5

The Nets had a big shooting advantage in their Game 1 win, hitting 42.3% of their 3-pointers (47.6% on non-corner-3s). Philly hit just 12.5% of its shots beyond on the arc in that one. Joe Harris, the best 3-point shooter in the league by percentage this season, went 3-of-4.

Since then? Harris has gone a combined 0-of-12 from 3. Some of those shots were open; he’ll likely have some better luck in Game 5. The Nets were actively running plays for him last game, and they’ll continue that.

Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Joe Harris

But overall, the 76ers have really stepped up their defense since Game 1.

Of all teams in Game 4, Brooklyn had the lowest percentage of shots classified as “open” by The Nets posted just a 30.8% effective field goal mark on those — which should get better — but the fact remains that they just aren’t getting the same quality looks as they did in Game 1.

Kenny Atkinson responded to that in Game 4 partly by reshaping the starting lineup, notably by getting another primary ball-handler in there with Caris LeVert instead of making D’Angelo Russell do everything by himself. LeVert was good, but the Nets just didn’t hit enough shots down the stretch when they needed to. They had a distinct advantage in totals shots, in fact, but their poor efficiency still produced a loss.

There are still some adjustments to make in this series, although you have to wonder how this young team will respond going down 3-1 in the series to a very talented Philly squad.

The Nets had some success down the stretch going at J.J. Redick in pick-and-rolls, and you’d have to imagine Atkinson will see that on film and do it even more in Game 5.

Game 4 was close, and the Nets have ways to improve, be it just shooting regression or adjustments. Losing Jared Dudley during the game hurt, too. Still, I think this line is about right and will likely be staying away. (Download our app to see if anything changes leading up to game time.) 

I’ll also leave you with an interesting over/under trend for the playoffs. Unpopular over/unders have historically done quite well, per Bet Labs. This is an interesting line: 69% of the bets are on the under, yet 75% of money is on the over. Given the line has decreased, that could indicate sharp money in that direction.

I’ll wait until the market gets bigger and monitor this trend.

Locky: Keep Tabs on Embiid News

Jared Dudley may have claimed he put Joel Embiid “on notice” with his taking umbrage to Embiid’s foul on Jarrett Allen earlier in the game, but the biggest thing in this series has been a lack of notice — that is, to Kenny Atkinson about whether Embiid will play or not.

Atkinson gets the Sixers starting lineup a few minutes before the game, and so it’s basically a surprise every game whether Embiid will play or not (since he’s done both already in the series). It’s possible that’s hurting the Nets’ strategy, as they have to plan for both iterations. And when Embiid has played, the Nets have been in huge trouble.

As a handicapper, I have to plan for both iterations, too. If Embiid is starting Tuesday night, I like the Sixers at -8.5. If he is not, I like Brooklyn (but that number won’t exist anymore, so I’d probably pass depending on how close to my phone I was). — Ken Barkley

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.