Nuggets vs. Warriors Odds, Preview, Prediction: [Editorial Language] (October 14)

Nuggets vs. Warriors Odds

Nuggets Odds+5
Warriors Odds-5
Over/Under227.5
Time10 p.m. ET
TVESPN2
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Nuggets (2-2) and Warriors (3-1) face off tonight in a potential Western Conference Finals preview that sees the reigning MVP take on the defending champions.

Denver looks to finish the preseason with a winning record, but Nikola Jokic is listed as questionable and it's unclear if his status is merely precautionary or related to a nagging wrist injury that kept him out of Monday night's win against the Phoenix Suns.

All eyes will be on the Warriors, however, as tonight marks the first game that Draymond Green and Jordan Poole will play together after their infamous altercation at practice that ended with Green punching Poole in the face.

The question on everyone’s mind going into Friday's marquee matchup will be whether or not the Warriors can overcome their turmoil and eke out a win against a formidable Nuggets squad that may be without their superstar big-man, Nikola Jokic.

I like the Nuggets to cover +5 but a final decision is contingent on their reigning MVP's status.

Denver Nuggets

Handicapping NBA preseason is different than the regular season. Intentions are murky and higher priority is placed on the players' health and safety and managing their respective workloads.

For that reason, I find it helpful to look at coaches and their personal preseason records when breaking down games at this level of importance (or lack thereof).

Nuggets head coach Michael Malone has an overall preseason record of 30-23-1 ATS (56.6%), he's 15-13-1 ATS (53.6%) on the road, and 16-11-0 ATS (59.3%) as a dog.

While his road and dog numbers are likely less telling due to sample size, I think his overall record is the most significant, given we have the most data.

But, as always, we need to look at a few more factors, and looking at a matchup's history is always a good start.

The last time these two teams competed was in the first round of the 2022 NBA Playoffs and the Warriors made relatively quick work of the Nuggets in a 7-game series that only needed a Game 5 to send the Nuggets packing.

In their early postseason exit, Denver was without two of their three best players—Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr.

Neither Murray nor Porter Jr. are on the injury report for tonight's game, but both will likely be on minutes restrictions if they do suit up.

However, their regular season record is something to keep in mind. The Nuggets were 3-1 ATS and SU vs. the Warriors last season.

While Denver's preseason record (2-2) may not inspire an abundance of confidence, that's more a result of them playing to their competition than anything else.

The Nuggets two preseason losses thus far came from a Western Conference team on tank-watch in the Oklahoma City Thunder, and a middle-of-the-road  Chicago Bulls squad who have a regular season win total over/under of 42 by most bookmakers for the upcoming 2022-2023 season.

Alternatively, Denver's two preseason wins came from playoff teams last season in the Phoenix Suns (who the Nuggets beat without the help of Nikola Jokic) and the Los Angeles Clippers, both of whom have a regular season win total of 52.5 at most books.


Golden State Warriors

The 2022-2023 preseason has been a lucrative one for those of us betting underdogs on a consistent basis.

Underdogs this preseason have gone 33-16-1 ATS (67.3%) and 28-22 SU (56%), which equates to an ROI of 48% if you bet every moneyline underdog. Not too shabby.

However, the Golden State Warriors have been an exception to that trend at 3-1 both SU and ATS thanks to their depth of young talent off the bench, led by Jonathan Kuminga, James Wiseman and Moses Moody.

And all of the Warriors' young players appear hungry for meaningful playing time on a championship roster.

Steve Kerr–coming off his 4th championship season as head coach of the Golden State Warriors–has a decidedly less impressive preseason ATS record compared to his Nuggets counterpart.

Kerr is 22-23-2 ATS (48.9%) overall, 12-9-0 ATS (57.1%) at home, and 14-19-2 ATS (42.4%) as a favorite.

The key in this matchup lies in playmaking and whichever team wins the assist battle.

When looking at every preseason game played between the Nuggets and Warriors, the team with more assists is 5-2-1 ATS and SU.

In the four games played between the Nuggets and Warriors in the 2021-2022 regular season, the team that won the assist battle was 3-1 ATS and 4-0 SU.

In the 2022 postseason, the team that won the assist battle was 4-1 ATS and 5-0 SU.

The return of Draymond Green is an important factor as his playmaking is crucial to their offense.

Green's return might sway me more towards the Warriors' side if not for the potential chemistry issues caused by the recent altercation with Jordan Poole.

Nuggets-Warriors Pick

With the success of underdogs this preseason and the Nuggets recent record against the Warriors outside of the playoffs, my lean is Denver +5. Playmaking for both teams will be key in this matchup and with Jokic's status in question, I'll stay away unless this number gets to +9 with Jokic out. If the Joker plays, this could be played down to the opening line of +3 or better.

Pick: lean to Nuggets +6 (-110)

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Sean Treppedi
Mar 28, 2024 UTC