Thursday’s Best NBA Player Props: 3 Guard Props to Play
Photo by Chris Schwegler/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Lonzo Ball
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Thursday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s five games:
- Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans: 8 p.m. ET
- Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks: 8 p.m. ET on TNT
- Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors: 10:30 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Nuggets PG Monte Morris
THE PICK: Under 13.5 points (+104) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Jamal Murray went down hard last night and looks like he could be out awhile, and Monte Morris is expected to start in his place. Morris is an efficient player, but he is not Jamal Murray. Morris has never been a scorer. He is an old school point guard that takes care of the ball and distributes.
Oddsmakers bumped Morris’s totals tonight because of his expected increased load, but I’m not buying the upside here. Our model projects Morris at just 10 points, so there’s a big margin in your favor here, especially at current odds.
Our model rates this prop a 10 out of 10 and also loves his under 5.5 assists. I’m skipping that one but riding Morris’s points prop all the way to -125.
Pelicans G Lonzo Ball
THE PICK: Over 6.5 assists (+102) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Lonzo Ball has been a different player in New Orleans, in part because he’s finally getting consistent playing time and shots up. He’ll get plenty of time tonight with Jrue Holiday and possibly J.J. Redick sidelined, and that should mean a lot more time on the ball too — no pun intended.
Ball has played more than 30 minutes 17 times this season. He’s gone over 6.5 assists in 14 of those games, usually with plenty to spare. We’re projecting Ball at 36.8 minutes tonight along with 7.9 assists. I’m all over this one at +EV while it lasts, and I’ll play Ball as high as -140.
Bucks PG Eric Bledsoe
THE PICK: Over 4.5 rebounds (+125) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Eric Bledsoe has certainly had his ups and downs against the Celtics, but he has a nice rebounding opportunity tonight against Kemba Walker and the smaller Boston guards. Bledsoe’s rebounding numbers had been down lately, but he had six Tuesday night against the Knicks.
Bledsoe’s rebounding numbers have been inconsistent, but we’re sticking with three +EV plays tonight.
Our model projects Bledsoe at 5.3 rebounds, and I like his upside to grab a few extra boards tonight, especially at +125. I’ll play Bledsoe to +100 if needed.