Raptors-Warriors Betting Guide: Historical Trends Favor Golden State

Raptors-Warriors Betting Guide: Historical Trends Favor Golden State article feature image
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Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant

Betting odds: Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors

  • Spread: Warriors -8
  • Over/Under: 226.5
  • Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: ESPN

>> All odds as of 9:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets


Tonight we have Episode 2 of what could be the NBA Finals matchup come June. The Raptors won the first game in overtime a couple weeks ago, but the defending champs now have Steph Curry and Draymond Green back.

Can the Warriors cover the 7-point spread? Our analysts discuss.

Update (9:30 p.m. ET): Kawhi Leonard has been ruled out with a hip injury.


Betting Trends to Know

The Raptors are playing the second game of a back-to-back. Under Steve Kerr, the Warriors are 40-29-1 (58%) against the spread when facing an opponent on a back-to-back, including 23-13-2 (64%) ATS since signing Kevin Durant. — John Ewing

As John noted, being on a back-to-back when facing the Warriors is just not an ideal spot for opponents. What is even worse is being on a back-to-back after a stellar shooting performance.

Teams playing on a back-to-back after shooting over 50% from the field in their previous game (Raptors shot 52.1% vs. Clippers) are 1-7 straight-up and against-the-spread when facing the Warriors under Kerr. Opponents have failed to cover the spread by 6.7 PPG.

Kawhi Leonard didn’t play last night on the road in the Staples Center against the Clippers — his seventh missed game this year. In those games, the Raptors are 6-1 straight-up and against-the-spread, winning and covering their past five games without the former Finals MVP. — Evan Abrams

Moore: What I'm Watching For Tonight

I have some concerns for Golden State here. One thing that’s bothered them, historically, is length.

That’s why the Bucks, not just because of Giannis Antetokounmpo (but mostly because of Giannis Antetokounmpo), are a problem for them.

The Raptors have grown into the same kind of team with Kawhi Leonard, OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam able to get their limbs out vs. opponents and their mitts on loose balls. They can interrupt passing lanes, which bothers Golden State, and they have the length to counter Kevin Durant’s freakish size.

Then there are the bigs. With Damian Jones out, it puts a lot of pressure on both the small-ball units with Draymond Green at center and Kevon Looney to hold down the fort.

One of the keys for the Raptors this year has been how they can adjust when necessary, putting Serge Ibaka at center if they need mobility and Jonas Valanciunas when they need size.

The Raptors can actually counter-program against Golden State this way, using Ibaka to battle Looney while taking advantage of his lesser mobility and then battering down Green with Valanciunas’ size.

Curry is the X-Factor, as always. If he just has one of those nights as he has so often this year where it doesn’t matter what you do to him, then the Warriors can run away.

However, if Leonard plays, that changes things. Nobody disrupts, bothers and interrupts Curry like Leonard. He genuinely gives his handle problems, something no one else can do.

I lean toward the Raptors given the number and the probability Leonard plays. The number makes sense: Take two points for the back-to-back for Toronto and three points for the Warriors in Oracle (which might be low), and you’re at Warriors -2 on neutral court, Raptors by one at home.

That sounds pretty on target. However, the length and versatility of the Raptors and how they have responded in big games this season gives me a slight lean towards them hanging close. This should be an incredible game even with the back-to-back. — Matt Moore


Mears: Steph Is a One-Man System

In the first meeting between these teams, the Raptors were at full strength at home, while the Warriors were down both Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. That line closed at Raptors -9.5, and Toronto ended up winning by three points in overtime.

This line currently sits at Warriors -7, which is quite a difference. That means that the addition of Curry and Green has brought on a swing of about 11 points on a neutral court. That doesn't factor in the back-to-back, however, and it assumes that Kawhi Leonard is playing tonight. He sat out last night's win against the Clippers, although it's possible it was just to rest for this matchup tonight.

That might seem like a huge swing, but it's probably about right. I've written before about how I think Steph is hugely valuable to the spread — perhaps even underrated. And the stats really, really bear that out this season.

In the first game between these teams, the Warriors scored 123.1 points per 100 possessions — the 87th percentile of games this year. And they did that despite not running an optimized offense at all. They took just 30% of their shots from the rim (23rd percentile) and 26% from behind the arc (17th percentile).

One quick tangent: I've heard people argue that the Warriors and other mid-range heavy teams are just "taking what the defense gives them." That's true, and that's the problem. Good offense beats good defense, and the former is what dictates the shots. If you have generational talents like Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson (even without Steph), you should be bending the defense to shoot at the spot on the floor you want.

Anyway, Steph fixes all of those issues and more. With him on the floor this year, the Warriors have taking 5.8% more shots at the rim (91st percentile of players this year) and 5.9% more 3-pointers. The Warriors hit 2.1% and 4.7% more of them, too, respectively.

He's a one-man system, and thus, he should be worth 5 or 6-plus points to the spread. Maybe even more. I would probably lean toward the Warriors here given the compelling back-to-back trends listed below, but honestly this spread is about right. — Bryan Mears


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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Sean Treppedi
Mar 28, 2024 UTC