Moore’s Celtics-Jazz Preview: Finding an Edge With Two Flawed Teams

Moore’s Celtics-Jazz Preview: Finding an Edge With Two Flawed Teams article feature image
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Photo credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Donovan Mitchell and Jayson Tatum

Betting odds: Boston Celtics at Utah Jazz

  • Spread: Jazz -6
  • Over/Under: 206
  • Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: ESPN

> All odds as of 1 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets


The Utah Jazz finished the 2017-18 season going 29-6. This, by the measure of their fans and advocates, was the "real" Jazz team. This of course assumed that at full strength, fully optimized, for an entire season, the Jazz would win 68 games. If that seems unreasonably high, well, that's because it is. But their dismissal of the Thunder in the first round was supposed proof of how good this team is.

The Boston Celtics, on the other hand, reached the conference finals despite missing Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving. They were expected by many, including yours truly, to contend for 60-plus wins this season.

Both teams have coaches considered top five in the league, dynamic superstar guards, brilliant game-changers at center, dynamic shooters and weapons on the perimeter and excellent benches anchored by exciting young point guards.

The Jazz are 5-6; the Celtics 6-4.

Fine, not terrible, but they've looked far from the juggernauts they were built up to be going into this season. They meet Friday in a key game for both teams. The headline will be Gordon Hayward's first game back, but this game stands as way bigger as a bellwether test for two teams trying to reach true contender status.

The Jazz opened as 3.5-point favorites and shifted to -6 after news dropped that Kyrie Irving would miss the game to attend his grandfather's memorial service.




BOSTON'S NOT SURE WHO IT IS

This should have been pretty seamless. Sure, adding two high-usage stars like Hayward and Irving back in the mix would be awkward if you didn't have a system, but the Celtics have Brad Stevens. Their system should accommodate everyone.

Funny story: The system makes sure everyone eats, but some folks have a bigger appetite.

Boston's off-ball actions to create a good shot remain tremendous. The Celtics are 11th in spot-up points per possession (via Synergy), and 23.3% of their shots come from spot-ups, the most of any playset.

They are ninth in 3-point rate and a not-bad-given-their-volume 15th in their percentage from deep.

They create good looks with that ball movement:

Irving and Horford in pick-and-pop is a goddamn nightmare. If you don't put two on ball, you're turning the court into Kyrie's playground. If you do, you're letting Horford slip into a shot that he's elite at converting:

Their problem has been on-ball. Irving struggled early in the season as he tried to play game-manager. He was making sharp passes and setting the table. And he wasn't doing that badly, which is a credit to him. Unfortunately, Kyrie can only be so good trying to be Mike Conley.

Conley is better at that than him. What Conley cannot do is be Kyrie Irving in any regard. In the last week, we've seen Irving get a haircut and go back to the hyper-efficient gunner he is.

Against the Suns Thursday, Irving's entire offensive conundrum manifested itself. In the first half, Irving had six possessions in the halfcourt that were either from pick-and-roll or isolation. He had 13 points and the Celtics were outscored by 20 with him on the floor. In the second half, Irving took matters into his own hands. He had 13 possessions from ISO and pick-and-roll, scored 26 points and was a plus-27.

That's how it goes. Irving is one of the most dangerous scorers in the league, and he is wasted as a cog in the wheel. This is part of what makes the Warriors and Steph Curry so exceptional; he's a model for Irving in that he constantly moves off-ball and generates insane scoring binges without the ball being in his hands all the time.

The offense for Boston in many ways has to start Irving first and then flow around the others. Horford can act as a primary playmaker and secondary scorer, setting the offense.

Hayward, once he returns to his normal self (which is taking longer than expected) can fill those gaps. Irving has a select number of truly great passes in his bag, but at his core, he's a scorer. He doesn't have a great instinct for getting others involved.

Jayson Tatum has been called to the carpet by Celtics fans for basically… playing like Irving needs to but doing so badly.'

He is shooting 31% in isolation this season, with a .529 points per possession mark, good for eighth percentile league-wide. Out of pick-and-roll? He's also shooting 31%, good for 14th percentile per possession.

Tatum famously trained with Kobe Bryant this summer, and while it seems like a stretch to blame all of his inefficiency woes on the most notorious volume scorer in NBA history, Tatum has broken off from the offense a lot this year.

What's interesting is how the team has performed in such circumstances. Tatum has the best Net Rating on the team among heavy-rotation players, as the Celtics have outscored opponents by 10.2 points per 100 possessions with Tatum and have been outscored by 8.2 without him. Irving's shooting percentages go from 52.5% with Tatum to 37.5% without him. Tatum's numbers are five percentage points better with Irving as well.

For now, the formula is working. In minutes in which Tatum and Irving share the floor, the Celtics have a solid 106.3 Offensive Rating. They're getting buckets. Particularly the four-man lineup of Tatum, Irving, Horford, and Marcus Morris with either Marcus Smart or Jaylen Brown absolutely cooks.

The Celtics' issues are with the other guys. Hayward has a 98.7 on-court Offensive Rating. Terry Rozier, who had to bat down talks he wanted a trade Thursday, has a 94 Offensive Rating. When the Celtics aren't driven by one of their two singularly brilliant scoring threats, they run into a brick wall.

boston celtics point guard kyrie irving 2018
Photo credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kyrie Irving

THE CELTICS' DIAGNOSIS

Boston's defense has been tremendous. The Celtics still make so many rotations on any given play. That and baseline competence from their talent is still going to rack up wins. But the problem hasn't been "only one ball" or anything like that. It's that so many of their talents are individual and their system is geared to team cohesive play.

The Celtics are seventh in scoring per possession on plays in which an isolation results in a kick-out (in a small sample). They are fourth in scoring per possession on kick-outs from pick-and-roll.

By using Irving and Tatum, they can generate great offense. But the bench unit may simply have to live with defense saving the day if one of those two isn't on the floor, and the Celtics may have to resist the idea that their intricate offense will generate the looks they need.

After all, while Steven's infamous ATOs carry the sixth-best points per possession mark, their overall side and baseline out-of-bounds plays fare much worse, ranking 28th in both categories.

The Celtics have role players who can fit around a two-star system, but they have to commit to that. Irving can carry them, and despite his shooting struggles, a night will come when he will do the heavy lifting, just as he did in the opener vs. the Sixers.

The Celtics want to be this multi-weaponed engine of doom, but they are closer to a much more traditional team driven by their stars' unique talents. That can work: The Warriors actually hate playing against great one-on-one talents.

It's why the Cavs with LeBron James in 2016, the 2016 Thunder and last year's Houston teams gave them trouble. But Boston will have to accept they may not be the special offense schematically that they'd hoped, and players like Rozier and Jaylen Brown may have to get used to simply being spot-up shooters.




THE JAZZ ARE SCHEMEABLE

I wrote much of this after the Jazz' loss to Memphis earlier this season. The reality is the Jazz had an unreasonably great end to last year in part buoyed by an unsustainable shooting performance from Ricky Rubio. Rubio's regression, coupled with injuries to Donovan Mitchell, have resulted in Utah's inability to get key buckets when it needs them.

Utah is 13th in offensive efficiency, so on the surface, all's well. The issue is how dependent on Mitchell they are. Rubio, in particular, is back to being left completely alone as defenses dare him to make them pay while they take away his pick-and-roll weapon Rudy Gobert and spot-up threat Joe Ingles. Without Mitchell, Rubio's Offensive Rating goes from a respectable 105.6 to 97.9.

The biggest issue is that without Mitchell on the floor, the Jazz lack another finisher at the rim. Rubio and Ingles are a combined 12-of-32 at the rim in non-post-up situations this season. Those misses result in poor floor balance, which is what leaves the Jazz vulnerable to transition buckets.

The Jazz are giving up more points off turnovers per 100 possessions with Rubio and Ingles on the floor this year. Rubio currently has the highest turnover rate of his career since his rookie season. Teams are playing the pass more with Rubio, and he's unable to make them pay, resulting in those transition scores.

Mitchell has been responsible for this, as well; when he's on the floor Utah is giving up a higher rate of points off turnovers. But Mitchell is able to anchor the offense in a way Rubio can't because of his individual scoring ability.


THE JAZZ'S DIAGNOSIS

The combination of Rubio and Mitchell works together, just as the combo of Tatum and Irving work together for Boston. Boston needs to rely on its scheme less and its stars more, and the Jazz need to find a way to get someone to play the Horford role as a secondary playmaker.

That balance is important. Gobert is the anchor of their ferocious halfcourt defense, but if teams are running him out, he can be only so effective.

Gobert is schemeable in that you can contain him. He doesn't have a short-range jumper, a floater, a push shot or much of a post setup. Numerous times vs. Denver and Toronto, Gobert would navigate his way to a post-up against a smaller opponent and Utah was either unwilling or unable to get him the ball.

Utah can find its way back to consistent success just by cutting out those turnovers. But that will mean Mitchell shouldering a larger load or Rubio returning to his outlier scoring performance from last season. Utah has a tougher hill to climb than Boston.


THE EDGE

The absence of Irving looms large here, as does Boston being on the back-to-back. However, the difference as noted above is that Boston can create points through Tatum, even if he's struggling from the field, whereas the Jazz's challenges are more inherent to their roster, not how they're using it.

Brad Stevens has always prioritized getting wins on back-to-backs, so +6 is awfully appealing. There should be a renewed focus after nearly losing to Phoenix. And most interestingly, this is a chance to see what Tatum looks like without Irving.

Will he fall on his face and continue to struggle after putting up an electric rookie season continues? Or will he look like the future MVP in the making again without having to share the spotlight?

With a tight line and these kinds of issues in play, Friday night's matchup brings an intriguing set of questions to the table.

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