Raptors vs. Warriors Game 3 NBA Finals Betting Guide: The Impact of Klay’s Injury

Raptors vs. Warriors Game 3 NBA Finals Betting Guide: The Impact of Klay’s Injury article feature image

Photo Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kawhi Leonard and Stephen Curry

2019 NBA Finals Game 3 Betting Odds: Raptors at Warriors

  • Spread: Warriors -4
  • Over/Under: 213
  • Time: 9 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: ABC
  • Series Score: Tied 1-1

>> All odds as of Wednesday evening. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and live win probabilities on your bets.

The Warriors went through scoring droughts and a rash of injured players and still managed to pull out a gutsy win on the road in Game 2.

Kevon Looney and Kevin Durant are out for this one, while Klay Thompson is currently questionable to suit up. What does all that mean for the betting market in Game 3?

Betting Trends to Know

For the first time in the NBA Finals, the spread ticket percentages are favoring the Raptors. As of Tuesday evening, the Warriors are receiving 35% of the betting tickets in Game 3. Under Steve Kerr, the Warriors have closed with under 50% of betting tickets 18 times in the playoffs. They are 18-0 straight-up and 15-3 against-the-spread (ATS) in those spots, covering by 8.6 points per game. – Evan Abrams

The Warriors trailed at the half of both Games 1 and 2 against the Raptors. The last 12 times the Warriors have trailed at the half of a playoff game, they are 11-0-1 straight-up on the second-half moneyline and 8-3-1 against the second-half spread. – Abrams

The Warriors are coming off one of their patented 30-plus assist playoff games, which they lead the NBA in since 2014-15. Under Kerr, Golden State is 24-3 straight-up and 18-9 ATS in the playoffs after a 30-plus assist game. – Abrams

As the NBA Finals shifts to Oracle Arena, take note: Under Kerr, the Warriors are 37-18 (67.3%) ATS at home in the regular season and playoffs when facing a team with a win rate of 66% or higher. – Abrams

Locky: How I’m Betting Game 3

This is a fascinating setup because of all of Golden State’s injury concerns, but as of right now I would guess Klay Thompson will play. We already know that Kevin Durant and Kevon Looney will not. I would imagine DeMarcus Cousins will once again get all the minutes he can handle.If Thompson doesn’t play, it will be interesting to see how Steve Kerr juggles rotations and what five players start the second and fourth quarters (which is typically when it’s Klay and four offensively-challenged players).

Let’s address something that, to me, is not a big deal: The Raptors missing wide-open shots. “They blew the game!” many of you yelled. Well, have you watched the Raptors play this postseason? They generate wide-open looks with incredible frequency, but it has been a consistent theme in the playoffs that they are unable to convert a lot of them.

Of all postseason teams this year, they rank second in generating “wide-open” attempts but are middle-of-the-pack (among the 16 teams) in effective field goal percentage on those attempts. They generate more than 20 wide-open 3s per game but are just sixth in percentage, tightly packed among most of the other teams.

The point is: The conversion of wide-open attempts has not been an attribute of this team all playoffs, despite the generation of those attempts. Don’t expect it to suddenly get much better now that we are all paying attention.

As for the game, I don’t have a strong opinion on the spread mostly because Thompson is such an unknown (even if he plays) and I’m not sure exactly what the Warriors rotation will even really be. Kerr has been great in the playoffs at getting production from a lot of players, but at some point there are just too many unproductive minutes being generated by a few of these bench players.

Maybe Kerr can pull a rabbit out of a hat yet again, but I’d lean Toronto at +5 with the Warriors being such a mystery. My level of confidence in being able to handicap what we will see from them is low. — Ken Barkley

Mears: Look to Live Bet This Game

I’m usually not a narrative guy; I prefer to lean on data to inform how I bet. But with so much injury uncertainty in this one, I think that’s a bit less useful in this game, so instead I’ll go through my general thoughts on how I think it’s best to wager on this weird game.

In our NBA slack chat, we were discussing how an oddsmaker from Westgate we talked to earlier this week said the Warriors would be about -9 in Game 3 if they were at full strength with a healthy Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant. It made sense with the opening line, if you believe that -5.5 number was dinged maybe a half-point for Klay’s uncertainty and then Durant is worth about three points.

I remarked at how I would be very interested in the Raptors at +9 in that situation, which made me realize that I didn’t think that current number — it got up to +6 — was accurate in the first place. I think even with a healthy team, the correct number should be about Warriors -7.

Unfortunately, I’m writing this Tuesday evening, and the line has already moved way down to Raptors +4.5, which is right around where I thought it should be. As such, I don’t think there’s much value left there.

The same is true with the total, which has consistently moved down or stayed the same in each of the first three games despite intense public support on the over. Of course, we do know that it’s been wise to fade the public on totals in the playoffs historically:

There might be a little value left after coming back up to 213, but, again, these are close to what I personally think are correct.

I do think there is potentially a ton of value, however, in watching the game early and trying to get live bets in.

Live lines are almost always computer-generated; how else could they update every few seconds? That means that it’s likely accounting for game flow solely and not anything a viewer can pick up on the court. And that means bettors could potentially have an edge if the Warriors come out and Klay immediately looks like he’s not 100 percent.

We saw what the Raptors did when he went out in Game 2, which was a box-and-1 defense. Make fun of it all you want, but the bigger point is what it illuminates, which is that Steph Curry in that scenario is truly the only player they fear. And they probably aren’t wrong in thinking that given the shooting limitations the rest of the roster has.

Klay (and Kevin Durant, but he’s already out) prevent defenses from honing in too much on Steph, but if he’s not right, the Raptors will absolutely scheme based on that. And while the Warriors pulled it out in that scenario in Game 2, I don’t believe that’s sustainable over a larger sample of possessions. My advice in this game is to watch early and take a shot on Toronto if Klay isn’t himself. — Bryan Mears

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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