How Warriors Have Performed as Small Favorites at Oracle in NBA Playoffs

How Warriors Have Performed as Small Favorites at Oracle in NBA Playoffs article feature image
Credit:

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Draymond Green

  • The Golden State Warriors are 2.5-point home favorites over the Toronto Raptors for Game 6 (Thursday at 9 p.m. ET on ABC).
  • The Warriors have closed as home playoff favorites of fewer than five points twice under Steve Kerr -- both in the 2019 NBA Finals.

The Warriors have never been listed as an underdog in 55 playoff games at Oracle Arena under Steve Kerr.

They’ve actually only closed as favorites of fewer than five points once over that stretch: Game 3 of the 2019 NBA Finals against the Raptors, when the Warriors closed as 2.5-point favorites and lost 123-109.

If you use the current spread of -2.5 for Game 6 (see live odds here), the Warriors have been a favorite of 3.5 average points in three home games against Toronto, by far the lowest average spread by opponent in their five-year NBA Finals run.

Of those 55 home playoff games, the Warriors have played 15 Games 5, 6 or 7 and, on average, have been 9.5-point favorites against their competition. The size of the spread has really told the story.

Golden State has closed under a 7-point favorite at home in a Game 5, 6 or 7 only three times under Kerr.

Let’s look at that trio of past examples.

Game 5 of 2019 Western Conference Semifinals vs. Houston Rockets

Warriors closed as 6-point favorites and walked away with a five-point win (104-99). This was the infamous game in which Kevin Durant injured his calf (…achilles?) that led to him missing basically the remainder of the playoffs.

Golden State would win Game 6 on the road and close out the series.

Result: Won straight up | Lost against the spread

Game 7 of the 2016 NBA Finals vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Warriors closed as 5-point favorites in Game 7 of the NBA Finals after blowing a 3-1 series lead to the Cavaliers. LeBron James recorded a triple-double in Game 7 and beat the Warriors on the road to win the Cavaliers’ first title in franchise history.

Result: Lost SU | Lost ATS

Game 5 of the 2016 NBA Finals vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Two games prior, the Warriors were 5.5-point favorites at home against the Cavaliers with a chance to close out the series in five games. The Warriors scored only 97 points on 36% shooting and lost by 15 points.

Result: Lost SU | Lost ATS