Warriors-Raptors Sharp Report: Are Pros Backing the Trendy Underdog?

Normally, Thursdays are one of the most action-packed days of the week for sharp and recreational bettors. However, with no college football and small NBA and college hoops slates tonight, bettors are struggling to find games to get down on outside of Saints-Cowboys.

Nevertheless, sharps picked apart the small three-game NBA slate and found unique value in the marquee matchup of the night — Golden State Warriors at Toronto Raptors (8 p.m. ET on TNT).

Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.

Full Sports Betting Glossary

Golden State Warriors at Toronto Raptors

8 p.m. ET on TNT

Sharp angle: Raptors (-8 to -9) 

One of the oldest adages that sharp bettors live by is this: if it looks too good to be true, it is.

For years now, the Warriors have been an auto-play for recreational bettors. It doesn't matter if they're home, away or what number they're laying. Dub Nation all day.

Tonight, the Warriors opened as rare 8-point underdogs in Toronto. Despite missing Draymond Green and Steph Curry, the public thinks the line is way too high and they're grabbing the points as fast as they can.

However, even though the Warriors are receiving nearly 70% of bets, Golden State has moved from +8 to +9 across the market. The Warriors even briefly touched +9.5.

Why on Earth would the bookmakers hand out additional points to public Warriors backers? No, the books aren't stupid.

The line moved because sharps got down hard on Toronto.

Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed three separate Steam and Reverse Line Moves on the Raptors. This overload of sharp action is what caused the books to adjust the line toward Toronto.

Essentially, we are seeing a classic "Fade the Trendy Dog" scenario. This public is typically biased toward betting favorites. When they load up on an underdog, it creates rare contrarian value for sharps to buy low on the favorite.

According to Bet Labs, favorites getting fewer than 40% of spread bets have gone 52.3% ATS since 2005. If they're laying six points or more, they've gone 58.9% ATS.