Wednesday NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: What Will Kyle Lowry Do in a Must-Win Game? (Sept. 9)
Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Lowry
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll, especially in the NBA postseason. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool at FantasyLabs comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
|Win-Loss (Win Pct)|
|Bet Quality of 10||775-572 (57%)|
|Bet Quality of 9||942-776 (54%)|
|Bet Quality of 8||1432-1263 (52%)|
Wednesday’s player props come from both of the slate’s games:
- Toronto Raptors vs. Boston Celtics at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
- Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets at 9:00 p.m. ET on ESPN
NBA Player Prop Bets
Toronto Raptors, Kyle Lowry
The Prop: Over 6.5 assists (-120) (bet365)
Kyle Lowry is the heart and soul of the defending NBA champion Toronto Raptors. We have to type it out because today might be the last time it’s true. But Kyle Lowry is also the biggest reason it might still be true tomorrow, if the Raptors can fend off the Celtics in Game 6.
The Raptors have struggled to find points against Boston, but that’s not Lowry’s fault. He’s averaging 19.2 points and 7.0 assists for the series, and both of those numbers would be even higher if he hadn’t sat out late for big sections of Game 1 and Game 5 blowouts.
In the three competitive games this series, Lowry is playing 43.4 MPG, and that’s almost exactly where we project him tonight. Nick Nurse might need to pry his man off the court in a must-win game. Lowry averaged 7.4 dimes per 36 minutes this season, so the math is pretty easy here. He’s had 8, 7, 8, 7, and 5 assists this series, going over this line 80% of the time and under only once in a blowout.
Lowry will be out there til the death tonight, and he’ll be diming up his teammates until the clock shows 0. This line feels a full assist low. I’m hammering at at 6.5 as high as -165, and I’d play at 7.0 too.
Denver Nuggets, Nikola Jokic
The Prop: Over 10.5 rebounds (+102) (DraftKings)
It’s not technically a must-win game for the Nuggets, but it’s about as close as it gets. Sure, Denver just came back from a 3-1 deficit last round, but the Clippers are not exactly the Utah Jazz. Denver knows they have to finish the job tonight to have any chance to keep their season alive.
Jokic has stepped up his game in a huge way over the last four games, looking like a truly elite center with monster scoring and rebounding numbers. Take a look:
- Game 7 vs Utah: 30 points, 14 rebounds
- Game 1 vs LA: 15 points, 3 rebounds
- Game 2 vs LA: 26 points, 18 rebounds
- Game 3 vs LA: 32 points, 12 rebounds
Did you spot the outlier? The Nuggets were blown off the court in Game 1 and Jokic played under 30 minutes. He’s over 37 minutes in all three other games and averaging 29.3 PPG and 14.7 RPG in those three. The Clippers have no answer for Jokic. Poor Ivica Zubac is doing the best he can but in constant foul trouble, and Jokic has been aggressive and dominant with his size.
Like Lowry, there will be no minutes reduction tonight for Jokic, no calling off the dogs no matter how out of hand the game gets. Jokic will be out there, and he should continue to dominate the boards against this smaller Clippers team.
We’re projecting him at 37.8 minutes and 12.9 rebounds, about in line with his recent production. I’m crushing the over-10.5 at these +EV odds — how is this in our favor?! — and happy to play up to -130.
Denver Nuggets, Gary Harris
The Prop: Over 10.5 points (+122) (DraftKings)
One reason the Nuggets have played better over the last two games is because of the return of Gary Harris. Harris finally saw his first action in the bubble in Game 6 against Utah, and he’s moved into the starting lineup against LA and playing a full minutes load now, over 35 in Game 3.
Harris’s scoring is going to come mostly from threes, and he’s attempting 5.0 threes per game over the last four games. He scored 10 and 13 points his last two games and is starting to look like he’s in a rhythm. The Nuggets are also shortening the rotation, with Torrey Craig mostly off the court and Mason Plumlee in spot duty, so that leaves only seven guys and more minutes for Harris.
We’re not getting a 20-point night from Harris. This one will be close and probably come down to Harris making or missing that one last three. I’m betting on volume and opportunity, especially with these odds in our favor. I’ll play the over down to +100.