Wednesday’s 3 Best NBA Player Props: Buy Low on Kyle Kuzma

Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.

That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

Odds as of Wednesday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.

As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:

• Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
• Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
• Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
• Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
• Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)

Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.

Tonight’s props come from three of today’s four games:

• Portland Trail Blazers at New York Knicks: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Minnesota Timberwolves at Milwaukee Bucks: 8 p.m. ET
• Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers: 10:30 p.m. ET

Let’s dive in.

Knicks SF Marcus Morris

THE PICK: Under 17.5 points (-105)

Morris has been a huge part of the Knicks’ offense this season, ranking second on the team in both points per game and usage rate. That said, it’s possible that his role with the team is dwindling.

He played just 23.4 minutes in his last game, despite the fact that the Knicks actually won that game by seven points. The Knicks are going absolutely nowhere this season, so it would make sense if they start to funnel some of Morris’ minutes to younger players like Kevin Knox, Damyean Dotson, and Frank Ntilikina.

He’s currently projected for just 26.9 minutes for today’s matchup vs. the Blazers, and that should make it tough for him to hit the over. The Blazers aren’t a great defensive team, but the Knicks rank just 28th in offensive efficiency this season.

I’m willing to roll the dice on his Morris’ minutes continuing to trend downwards. I like the under up to -115.

Bucks SG Khris Middleton

THE PICK: Over 3.5 assists (-167)

This prop is juiced up higher than usual, but this line still offers plenty of value. Middleton has crushed this line recently, handing out at least four assists in each of his past six games. Some of those games have come with Giannis Antetokounmpo out of the lineup, but Middleton has consistently provided value at this number for the whole season.

The only real concern here is the point spread. The Bucks are currently favored by 18 points, which makes them the largest favorites of the entire season. Middleton will likely see reduced minutes in this matchup, but he still has the potential to hit the over in that situation.

Middleton has averaged 4.9 assists per 36 minutes, so he doesn’t necessarily need to play that much.

The juice might scare some people away, but this prop still owns a bet quality of nine in the Player Prop tool. I think it has value up to -180.

Lakers SF Kyle Kuzma

THE PICK: Over 13.5 points (-130)

Kuzma has seen a nice spike in playing time recently, logging at least 26.4 minutes in each of his past three games. He’s scored at least 24 points in two of those contests, followed by zero points in his last contest.

That makes this a nice buy-low opportunity. Kuzma was still very involved in that game, but he shot just 0-7 from the field. He has a decent matchup today vs. the Suns, who rank just 19th in defensive efficiency. The Lakers are implied for 118.75 points, which represents a massive increase compared to their season average of 112.4.

I like the idea of buying low on Kuzma in this matchup. I’d play it up to -150.