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UPDATED: Freedman’s Favorite 2019 College Basketball National Championship Player Props for Virginia-Texas Tech

Apr 08, 2019 5:38 PM EDT
Credit:

Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kyle Guy

  • Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring favorite prop bets for each day of 2019.
  • He runs through Monday's college basketball National Championship between Virginia & Texas Tech to highlight player props he likes.

Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces on props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.

In this piece, I’m looking at NCAA Tournament player props for Monday’s National Championship between Virginia and Texas Tech. NOTE: I might update this piece as more lines are released.

For March Madness, I am 112-62-12 (+34.90) on player props. Shooter’s shoot, and I have an NCAA Tournament prop-betting strategy.

My National Championship player projections are available for subscribers, so check them out.

You also should look at our live betting odds page for up-to-the-minute lines.

#1 Virginia vs. #3 Texas Tech

  • Spread: Virginia -1.5
  • Over/Under: 118.0
  • Date: Mon., April 8
  • Time: 9:20 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS

Virginia G Kyle Guy: Under 1.5 Free Throws (+145)

I’ll be honest: I don’t feel great about this prop, especially since Guy just won a game for the Cavaliers by draining three consecutive last-second free throws.

Guy doesn’t get to the line often since he shoots so many 3-pointers — this year he has just 2.2 attempts from the stripe per game — but his .825 free-throw rate is strong.

If Guy is fouled on a shot, he has a very good chance of draining two-plus freebies. In fact, I even have Guy projected for 1.7 free throws against Texas Tech.

But I still lean toward the under. This year Guy has made fewer than two free throws in 17 of 37 games, or 46.0% of the time. With +145 odds, the under has an implied probability of just 40.8%, which means that the market is providing too much of a discount to bettors looking to fade Guy.

Nevertheless, I wouldn’t bet under 1.5 any lower than +140.

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