2019 SWAC Tournament Betting Odds, Preview: Can’t Spell Grambling Without the Gambling

The SWAC Tournament has a few format quirks to know. Only the top eight teams qualified for the postseason tourney and all eight will be in action on Tuesday for the quarterfinal games, each hosted by the top four seeds.

Those four quarterfinal winners will have a semifinal round on Friday, March 15, followed the championship on Saturday. While the quarters are played in the higher-seeded teams' home arenas, the semifinals and championship are played in Bill Harris Arena in Birmingham, Ala.

Mississippi Valley State and Alabama A&M finished in the bottom of the SWAC Conference standings and will not participate in this tournament. Prairie View A&M, Texas Southern, Jackson State and Grambling will each host quarterfinal games against Alcorn State, Southern, Alabama State and Arkansas-Pine Bluff, respectively.

From a historical perspective, either Southern or Texas Southern has won this tournament every year since 2012.

2019 SWAC Tournament Odds, Format

• Who: Top 8 SWAC teams
• Format: Standard eight-team bracket (no byes)
• When: March 12, 15, 16
• Where: Campus sites for R1 then Birmingham, AL
• How to Watch: ESPN+, ESPN+
• Defending Champion: Texas Southern

Who Should Win?

Texas Southern +130

This tournament belongs to the Texas Southern Tigers until further notice.

They split home and home against the No. 1 seed Prairie View A&M (+140), but the advanced metrics show a bigger disparity between the top two seeds, in favor of TSU. Both teams do rank at the top of the conference in offensive efficiency, tempo, two-point field goal percentage and defensive steal percentage.

Prairie View A&M ranks eighth in offensive rebounding percentage and last in the SWAC in opponent offensive rebounds. The Panthers also rank ninth in block percentage and eighth in opponent two-point field goal percentage. In translation, Prairie View A&M doesn’t play a ton of defense.

Also, look at the difference in bench minutes for the two squads, as they are targeted to meet for a third game in five days scenario if the seeds hold. Texas Southern ranks 16th in the nation, getting almost 40% of its playing time from the bench. Prairie View A&M doesn't have a glaring depth problem, but comes in much worse at 118th in that same measure, which could be an issue during the final.

Potential Sleeper

Grambling State +600

Look no further than the Tigers for a team that is playing with a chip on their shoulder. They were ineligible for tournament play because of APR violations (graduation rates) in 2018. After winning the regular season SWAC crown with a 13-5 conference record, Grambling State watched from home as Texas Southern won  another tournament title.

Thanks to tiebreakers, Grambling will host Arkansas-Pine Bluff in this year's opening round in a game it should win. Senior guard Martaveous McKnight won't go down without a fight, but he doesn't have much help.

Grambling would then likely run into No. 1 seed Prairie View A&M in the semifinals, a matchup that favors the Tigers. Not only is Grambling second in the SWAC in defensive efficiency, it ranks first in the conference in three-point percentage and distribution of points coming from distance.

That may spell doom for a Prairie View A&M team that gives up the most 3’s in the conference and is dead last in offensive rebounds during SWAC play.

Grambling's excellent perimeter play on both sides of the ball (top 25 nationally in three-point offense and defense) can get the Tigers to the SWAC final where they'd at least have shot, regardless of opponent.