2020 ACC Tournament Odds & Betting Pick (Tuesday, March 10): Will Virginia Tech Shock North Carolina?
Grant Halverson/Getty Images. Pictured: Rameses, the UNC mascot
- The updated odds of Tuesday's ACC matchup between North Carolina and Virginia Tech make the Tar Heels 4.5-point favorites with the over/under set at 141.
- UNC hasn't been the dominant team we're used in seasons past, but are they at risk to be upset by the Hokies?
- We preview the matchup and give picks below.
2020 ACC Tournament Odds & Pick: North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech Betting Preview
- Spread: UNC -4
- Over/Under: 141
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
It’s weird seeing North Carolina playing in the first round of the ACC Tournament, but as poor as they’ve been all season this is where they belong. Virginia Tech, meanwhile, comes into this game losers of five out of its last six games to end regular season play.
North Carolina ranks 305th in effective field goal percentage (eFG%), 308th in 3-point percentage and 272nd in 2-point percentage, but where the Tar Heels offense has flourished this season is on the offensive glass, grabbing rebounds at a 35.2% rate, which ranks 13th in the nation.
Much of that is due to the presence of Armando Barcot and Garrison Brooks as the duo is grabbing six offensive rebounds per game. The Hokies’ strength defensively is rebounding: They only allow opponents to grab offensive rebounds at a 25% rate, which ranks 52nd in the nation. In fact in the first matchup between these two teams, which went to double overtime, the Hokies held UNC to a 16.7% offensive rebound rate.
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Virginia Tech’s offensive identity is very simple: Take care of the ball and shoot 3s. The Hokies are only turning the ball over at a 14.7% rate, which ranks fifth in the country, while North Carolina only turns opponents over at a 16.3% rate (314th overall).
Nearly 43% of the Hokies’ points come from behind the arc (fifth-highest in the country) led by Landers Nolley (15.6 PPG) and dead-eye shooter Jalen Cone (47% from 3). In the lone matchup between these two teams back in January, Cone went 6-of-11 from 3.
If the Hokies can shut down North Carolina on the offensive glass and shoot 3s like they are capable, we very well could see an outright upset in Greensboro.
My model has the line on this game North Carolina -1.15, so I think there is value on Virginia Tech +4 or better.
Pick: Virginia Tech +4 or better