March Madness Model Projections: Each Team’s Chances to Reach the Final Four
Getty Images. Pictured: Gonzaga’s Drew Timme, Arizona’s Bennedict Mathurin.
Now that the 2022 March Madness bracket has been released, what are every teams’ chances of advancing to the Final Four in New Orleans?
Based on the model of our Director of Predictive Analytics Sean Koerner — whose brackets for the last two NCAA Tournaments finished in the 99th and 95th percentiles on ESPN — the teams with the top-three chances to advance to the semifinals are all No. 1-seeds: Gonzaga (54.4%) in the West, Arizona (35.6%) in the South and Kansas (29.0%) in the Midwest.
But the team with the fourth-best projected chance isn’t the East’s No. 1 seed Baylor (25.0%) — it’s 2-seed Kentucky (26.0%) in the bottom of the same bracket.
The lowest seeds with at least a 10% chance of making it to New Orleans are 5-seeded Iowa and Houston, but neither offer the biggest potential betting edges when comparing our expert Koerner’s projections to FanDuel’s Final Four odds.
Let’s find out which teams are — right after we run through Koerner’s projected chances of every team advancing to each round by region below.
March Madness Bracket Predictions
Below we’ve broken out our probabilities for each team to advance to each round, with some notable teams highlighted.