How Savvy Bettors Can Exploit Wednesday’s Top 5 Matchups
Eat your heart out, Big Monday! Wednesday’s college basketball slate is bananas. Twelve top 25 teams are in action, headlined by No. 1 Virginia vs. Georgia Tech, No. 3 Villanova vs. DePaul, and No. 5 Duke vs. Louisville. The Cavaliers, Wildcats and Blue Devils will each face an unranked opponent coming off a loss. Let’s take a look at how savvy bettors exploit these matchups by using a Pro System from Bet Labs.
Per the Bet Labs database, we know it has been profitable to bet against top 5 teams in conference games: 617-541-27 (53.3%) ATS since 2005. If the opponent facing the highly-ranked team is outside the top 25 and coming off a loss, the ATS record improves to 242-201-7 (54.6%) ATS.
This is a simple strategy for taking advantage of casual bettors’ tendencies. The public loves betting ranked teams and fading squads off a loss. Oddsmakers will inflate the line for the top 5 team, leading to value on the side coming off a defeat.
The optimal spot for betting unranked teams vs. top 5 conference opponents is off big losses. The worse the defeat, the better the bet.
Since 2005, betting unranked teams off losses of 14 or more points facing a top 5 conference opponent has gone 95-46-1 (67.4%) ATS, meaning a $100 bettor following this Pro System would have returned a profit of $4,402.
Villanova vs. DePaul: The Blue Demons are 3-11 in Big East action and are coming off a five-point loss to Seton Hall. While technically not a play, in the last five seasons, unranked opponents off a loss facing a top 5 conference foe in their next game have gone 126-91-5 (58.1%) ATS.
Duke vs. Louisville: It has been a rough few days for the Louisville faithful. After getting drubbed, 93-76, at home by North Carolina on Saturday, the NCAA ruled on Tuesday that the Cardinals must vacate all wins between 2011-2015, including the 2013 National Championship. I can’t do anything about the lost title, but if it helps Louisville is an excellent contrarian play after its 17-point home loss to UNC.
Virginia vs. Georgia Tech: Earlier I said the bigger the loss the better the bet. Georgia Tech has lost five in a row, culminating in a 76-56 defeat at home to Virginia Tech. Teams off a 20-point loss facing a top 5 conference opponent: 45-20-1 (69.2%) ATS.
Want more trend-based college basketball picks? Try Bet Labs for a month, get game matches for this system and more!
Pictured above Villanova Wildcat Mikal Bridges
Photo via Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports