The ACC semifinal matchup between No. 1 Virginia and No. 19 Clemson is expected to be a slugfest (7:00 p.m. ET). The total opened 118.5, the sixth-lowest total for a power conference matchup this season, and has been bet down to 117.
Virginia’s stifling defense shutdown Clemson, 61-36, back in January. The Cavaliers held the Tigers to 32% shooting for the game and conceded just 13 points in the second half. The game easily went under the closing total of 119.
Casual bettors like playing favorites and the over. In all postseason games since 2005, the over has received a majority of bets in 3,688 of 5,105 games (72.2%). In low total contests, the over attracts a higher percentage of the handle. In games with a total of 120 or less, the over received a majority of bets 81.2% of the time (220 out of 271 games).
Public bettors sees a low total and their natural instinct is to bet the over. What should they be doing with this UVA-Clemson matchup specifically? Let’s dive in to a few historical trends.