What the Public is Missing with the Clemson-Virginia Total

The ACC semifinal matchup between No. 1 Virginia and No. 19 Clemson is expected to be a slugfest (7:00 p.m. ET). The total opened 118.5, the sixth-lowest total for a power conference matchup this season, and has been bet down to 117.

Virginia’s stifling defense shutdown Clemson, 61-36, back in January. The Cavaliers held the Tigers to 32% shooting for the game and conceded just 13 points in the second half. The game easily went under the closing total of 119.

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Casual bettors like playing favorites and the over. In all postseason games since 2005, the over has received a majority of bets in 3,688 of 5,105 games (72.2%). In low total contests, the over attracts a higher percentage of the handle. In games with a total of 120 or less, the over received a majority of bets 81.2% of the time (220 out of 271 games).

Public bettors sees a low total and their natural instinct is to bet the over. What should they be doing with this UVA-Clemson matchup specifically? Let's dive in to a few historical trends.

Here is the under record in all conference tournament games by closing total when both teams are playing on a back-to-back, since 2005:

This may seem counterintuitive to recreational gamblers, but the lower the total the better the under has performed. In games with a total of 130 or less, the under is 137-100-5 (58%) and in games with a line of 120 or fewer points, the under has gone 30-17 (64%).

Betting the under goes against a square’s nature. A low total game looks like an easy over, but it rarely is.

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Defense continues to be UVA’s calling card. The Cavs have allowed 52.9 points per game (1st in the nation) and rank No. 1 in KenPom’s defensive efficiency, while Clemson ranks 8th. I like a shootout as much as the next bettor, but points will be at a premium when two of the best defenses in the country take the floor tonight. That’s why I’m betting the under in Virginia-Clemson.

Picture above Virginia guard Nigel Johnson

Picture via Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports