Friday Sharp Report: Wiseguys See Value in Five Friday CBB Bets
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Public bettors might be disappointed in tonight’s small 10-game college hoops slate, but not the sharps. They see “quality” not “quantity” and have promptly gotten down on several under-the-radar matchups in the Ivy League, MAC, Horizon and A-10.
After analyzing all the odds, percentages and line movement, here are the five bets the professional players are focusing on tonight.
All info as of 5 p.m. ET
A few reminders:
- A really high bet percentage is usually a clear indicator of who public bettors (aka the guys who don’t do this for a living) are taking. And breaking news: The majority of public bettors aren’t successful over the long haul.
- To help locate which games the pros are on, focus on the money percentage metric. If a team is getting a much higher share of dollars compared to bets, that’s a good sign that the wiseguys are on them.
- Don’t blindly bet games based on percentages. You also have to look at the line movement. One of the best sharp indicators is Reverse Line Movement: when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the team the public is betting. Example: Duke is getting 75% of spread bets vs. North Carolina but you see the line move from Duke -1 to +1.5. That’s a sure sign the wiseguys are on UNC.
Five wiseguys bets on Friday’s college hoops slate
Pennsylvania at Dartmouth (+7), Under 138
7:00 p.m. ET
In the most lopsided game of the night, eight out of 10 bettors are taking road favorite Penn to cover the -7. Why? Because public bettors focus on won-loss records over everything else: Penn is 16-6 and Dartmouth is 4-15. However, despite 81% of bettors taking Penn, the line hasn’t moved off of 7. This line freeze indicates liability on Dartmouth, with the books reluctant to hand out an extra half point or more to sharp contrarian bettors. Dartmouth is also getting a slightly higher share of dollars, another sharp indicator.
Sharps have also gotten down on the under, which is only getting 21% of bets but 48% of dollars — a massive 27% bet vs. dollar discrepancy. 5Dimes was the first to get hit with sharp under money at 139, then the entire market followed suit, with the total dipping down to 138. The 5Dimes steam move is the top college hoops bet signal this season, with a record of 538-456, +33.1 units. This means that if you bet $100 every time 5Dimes steamed a total, you would be up $3310 right now.
Davidson-Rhode Island Under 143.5
7:00 p.m. ET
Squares are biased toward betting Overs; they don’t want to root for missed field goals and shot-clock violations. In this matchup, 69% of bets are taking the Davidson-URI Over, but 52% of dollars are on the Under. At 5Dimes, sharps hammered the Under 144, which forced books to drop the total.
Detroit U-Oakland Under 166.5
9:00 p.m. ET
Despite being the highest total of the night, the public is still betting the Over in this matchup. But the smart money is on the other side: 44% of bets are taking the Under, but it accounts for 64% of dollars, a great Pro vs. Joe bet discrepancy. At 5Dimes and CRIS, sharp bettors steamed the Under at 167 and 165.5, respectively.
Kent at Ball State (-6.5)
9:00 p.m. ET
PJ Walsh did a great job breaking down this matchup in his Wake and Rake column. Sharps identified a soft line early and quickly hammered Ball State -5 at BetUS. This steam move forced the market to adjust the number to -6.5. The home favorite is also enjoying a valuable bet vs. dollar discrepancy. Only 44% of bets are taking Ball State, but it accounts for 62% of dollars.
Other teams receiving sharp action tonight
- Detroit U (41% bets, 43% dollars, +14 to +13.5)
- Cornell (46% bets, 72% dollars, +7 to +5)
- Davidson (43% bets, 48% dollars, +7 to +5)
- Minnesota (42% bets, 39% dollars, +7 to +6)
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Cover photo via Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports