Friday Sharp Report: Wiseguys Getting Down on Three Sides and Two Totals
Mary Langenfeld-USA TODAY Sports
Sharp bettors cleaned up on Thursday, highlighted by a straight-up victory by Georgia Tech (17% of bets, 19% of dollars, +4 to +2.5) over NC State. But today is a new day. Win, lose or draw, sharps always turn the page. Welcome to March Madness, where sleep doesn’t exist and it’s always onto the next game(s)!
After examining all the percentages and line movement for Friday’s 33-game slate, here are five college basketball bets that professional players are focusing on today, including games that start at 5:30, 6, 7, 8 and 9 p.m. ET.
All data as of 4:30 p.m. ET
Detroit U (+2.5) vs. Wisc Green Bay
5:30 p.m. ET
We’re seeing a classic Pros vs. Joes showdown in this Horizon League Tournament matchup. Green Bay is 12-19 and Detroit is 8-23, so of course the public is taking the team with the better record (68% on Green Bay). Not the sharps.
Detroit is only getting 32% of bets but it accounts for 62% of dollars, indicating smart money is on the dog. Meanwhile, Green Bay has fallen from -4 to -2.5 since opening, indicating sharp reverse line movement on Detroit.
Eastern Michigan-Toledo Under 143
6 p.m. ET
Wiseguys see an under-the-radar sharp total play in this MAC showdown. Nearly 70% of bets are taking the Over, yet the total has fallen from 144 to 143. Why would the books drop the total to give public over bettors a better number? Because sharps got down hard on the Under, creating liability. They steamed Under 144 at BetUS and triggered a reverse line move on Under 144.5 at JustBet.
Western Michigan (+2) at Central Michigan
7 p.m. ET
Both teams have identical 17-13 records, so naturally the public is siding with the home favorite. However, despite receiving nearly 60% of bets, Central Michigan has fallen from -3.5 to -2, indicating smart money on the road dog.
Western Michigan also enjoys a colossal bet vs. dollar discrepancy. They’re only getting 45% of bets but 73% of dollars, another indication that smart money is grabbing the points, not laying them.
UPDATE: The Western Michigan/Central Michigan has been postponed
Youngstown State (-2) vs. Cleveland State
8 p.m. ET
Two awful teams are going head-to-head in this Horizon League tourney game. The public likes Cleveland State (58%) because they have a slightly better record (9-22).
However, wiseguys like 8-23 Youngstown. Despite only getting 42% of bets, Youngstown has moved from +1.5 to -2, indicating sharp reverse line movement. Sharps steamed Youngstown +1 at CRIS and again at a pick’em at ABC, causing market-wide movement in their favor.
Rutgers-Purdue Over 132
9 p.m. ET
Sharps are laying off the side in this Big Ten Tournament game, but they see value on the total. A light majority of bets (52%) are taking the Under, but more than 70% of dollars are on the Over, a valuable bet vs. dollar discrepancy and evidence of smart Over money. Meanwhile, despite the relatively even bet percentages, the total has risen at the two sharpest offshore books (131 to 132 at Bookmaker and 131 to 133.5 at Pinnacle, including a steam move on the Over 132.5). In a vacuum, the total shouldn’t move an inch if the bets are even.
A few reminders:
- A really high bet percentage is usually a clear indicator of who public bettors (aka the guys who don’t do this for a living) are taking. And breaking news: The majority of public bettors aren’t successful over the long haul.
- To help locate which games the pros are on, focus on the money percentage metric. If a team is getting a much higher share of dollars compared to bets, that’s a good sign that the wiseguys are on them.
- Don’t blindly bet games based on percentages. You also have to look at the line movement. One of the best sharp indicators is Reverse Line Movement: when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the team the public is betting. Example: Duke is getting 75% of spread bets vs. North Carolina but you see the line move from Duke -1 to +1.5. That’s a sure sign the wiseguys are on UNC.
The Pro membership also gives you a fully customizable live odds page with lines from 50+ books, the number of bets on every game, best bet picks, steam and reverse line moves, Sharp Action Report, weather, injuries, line watcher, line predictor and more.
If you have any questions about Sports Insights, the Betting Hangouts, or betting concepts in general, you can find me on twitter @Josh_Insights
Cover Photo via Mary Langenfeld-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured: Purdue Head Coach Matt Painter talks with guard Carsen Edwards