Monday Sharp Report: Wiseguys Targeting Three College Basketball Totals
Amy Kontras-USA TODAY Sports
March Madness bettors will be going through serious withdrawal the next few days as they anxiously await the Sweet 16. But wiseguys aren’t punting until Thursday. They’re busy getting down on soft NIT and CIT lines.
After examining all the percentages, line movement and bet signals for Mondays 9-game slate, here are three college basketball bets that professional players are focusing on today, including games that start at 7:00, 7:30 and 11:30 p.m. ET.
All data as of 4:15 p.m. ET
Stanford-Oklahoma State Over 155
7:00 p.m. ET
Professional players see great value on this NIT Second Round total. Over/Under bets are split down the middle, but the total has risen across the market (153 to 155). How do we know it’s smart money moving the line? Because, in a vacuum, a total shouldn’t move at all if the bets are 50/50. Wiseguys at 5Dimes (+64.7 units) steamed Over 153 and sharps at BetUS (+13.2 units) hammered Over 153.5. This heavy sharp action has driven the total up to 155.
Eastern Michigan-Sam Houston State Over 135.5
7:30 p.m. ET
In this CIT Second Round matchup, wiseguys see another soft total and sharp Over play. Only 52% of bets are taking the Over, but it accounts for 71% of dollars. This massive bet vs. dollar discrepancy indicates smart money on the Over. The big guys at 5Dimes (+64.7 units) steamed Over 134, causing the market to raise the total to 135.5.
Western Kentucky-USC Over 150.5
11:30 p.m. ET
Wiseguys are eyeing a rare contrarian Over in this NIT Second Round showdown. The Under is getting 55% of bets, yet the total has risen across the market (150 to 150.5). Why would oddsmakers raise the total to give public Under backers a better number? Because they have smart money liability on the Over. Sharps at 5Dimes crushed the Over 150, causing market-wide steam that pushed the total up to 151.5. Some Under buyback has dropped it down to 150.5.
A few reminders:
- A really high bet percentage is usually a clear indicator of who public bettors (aka the guys who don’t do this for a living) are taking. And breaking news: The majority of public bettors aren’t successful over the long haul.
- To help locate which games the pros are on, focus on the money percentage metric. If a team is getting a much higher share of dollars compared to bets, that’s a good sign that the wiseguys are on them.
- Don’t blindly bet games based on percentages. You also have to look at the line movement. One of the best sharp indicators is Reverse Line Movement: when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the team the public is betting. Example: Duke is getting 75% of spread bets vs. North Carolina but you see the line move from Duke -1 to +1.5. That’s a sure sign the wiseguys are on UNC.
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If you have any questions about Sports Insights, the Betting Hangouts, or betting concepts in general, you can find me on twitter @Josh_Insights
Cover Photo via Amy Kontras-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured: Oklahoma State center Yankuba Sima (35) and guard Kendall Smith (1) walk off the court after defeating Oklahoma in the Big 12 Tournament.