Thursday Sharp Report: Wiseguys Hammering 10 CBB Games

Thursday Sharp Report: Wiseguys Hammering 10 CBB Games article feature image

Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports

Buckle your seatbelts. We have a monster College Hoops slate tonight with more than 40 games on tap. We always want to limit our plays. But some nights there’s so much value that you can’t lay off. Tonight is one of those nights.

After breaking down all the lines and percentages, here are 10 college basketball bets that professional players are getting down on tonight.

For a full glossary betting of terms, plus the sides getting the highest percentage of tickets and money, check out the bottom of the article.

All data as of 4:00 p.m. ET

Purdue at Illinois (+8)

7:00 p.m. ET

In the most heavily-bet game of the night, nearly 70% of bettors are laying the points with 9th-ranked Purdue. Why? Because they’re 24-5 and Illinois is 13-16. However, sharps see value on the conference home dog. Early this morning, sharps got down hard on Illinois +9.5, which caused the market to drop the Illini to +8.

NC Wilmington (+7) at William and Mary

7:00 p.m. ET

NC Wilmington sits at 9-19, while William and Mary is 16-11. So of course the public is laying the points with the home favorite. However, NC Wilmington is the wiseguy play. The road dog enjoys a sharp bet vs. dollar discrepancy (42% bets, 64% dollars) and also received smart money reverse line movement (+7.5 to +7).

Wisconsin Green Bay at Oakland (-11.5)

7:00 p.m. ET

The public sees a dog with a massive spread and can’t resist. However, sharps have no problem laying big points with the home favorite. Oakland is only getting 33% of bets but it accounts for nearly half the money. Even more notable, the line has moved from Oakland -10 to -11.5 since opening. Sharps crushed Oakland -10, causing market-wide steam.

Elon (+9.5) at Coll Charleston 

7:00 p.m. ET

Elon is in a similar spot as NC Wilmington. They’re getting less than 50% of bets but it accounts for an overwhelming amount of dollars (75%). Plus the line has moved big in their favor (+11.5 to +9.5). This combination of smart money and movement is evidence of wiseguy bettors grabbing the points, not laying them.

SE Missouri State at Eastern Kentucky (-2) 

8:00 p.m. ET

Eastern Kentucky is 10-19 and SE Missouri State is 14-15. So why is Eastern Kentucky favored? If it looks too good to be true, it is. Square bettors are pounding SE Missouri State (68% of bets), but sharps are fading the trendy dog. They hit EKU -1 at SBG, causing market-wide reverse line movement that pushed EKU to -2.

South Dakota (+2.5) at South Dakota State

8:00 p.m. ET

The two best teams in the Summit Conference go head-to-head tonight in a South Dakota civil war. Public bettors are heavy on home-favorite South Dakota State (68% of bets). However, sharps are grabbing the points with the road dog. South Dakota is only getting 32% of bets but it accounts for 87% of dollars– a massive bet vs. dollar discrepancy. Sharps hammered South Dakota +3.5 early, dropping the line down to +2.5.

Belmont at Jacksonville State (+3) 

9:00 p.m. ET

Recreational bettors are wowed by Belmont’s 22-7 record. But not the sharps. They see value on 18-11 Jacksonville State at home plus the points. Jax State is only getting 21% of spread bets, but the line has moved in their direction. Sharps got down hard on Jax State +4, causing a pair of steam and reverse line moves that forced the market to drop the line to +3. They’re also heavy on the Over, hitting it twice.

Houston at Memphis (+6) 

9:00 p.m. ET

Houston is 21-5, ranked 23rd in the nation and recently took down 5th-ranked Cincinnati. So of course the public has no problem laying the points with the road-favorite Cougars. However, sharps like 16-11 Memphis to keep it close on their home court. The Tigers are only getting 35% of spread bets, yet the line has moved in their direction (+7 to +6). We saw a reverse line move on Memphis +7, which forced the market to drop the line.

UCLA-Utah Under 148.5

9:00 p.m. ET

Sharp bettors will be rooting for blocked shots, missed baskets and shot clock violations in this late PAC 12 showdown. Only 46% of bets are on the Under, but it accounts for more than 70% of dollars. This huge bet vs. dollar discrepancy indicates big, sharp wagers taking the Under. Wiseguys steamed the Under 150, dropping the total down to 148.5 across the market.

Arizona at Oregon State (+5.5) 

9:00 p.m. ET

In one of the most lopsided games of the night, more than 80% of bets are taking the 14th-ranked Wildcats to cover. But sharps like the home dog to lose by 5 or less. The Beavers are only getting 16% of bets (but 20% of dollars) and the line has moved from +6 to +5.5 in their favor. Why would the books give public Arizona bettors a better number? Because sharps came in hard on Oregon State, creating big liability. Early this morning, wiseguys hit Oregon State +6, causing steam and reverse line movement that pushed the Beavers down to +5.5 across the market.

Thirsty for more in-depth betting analysis? Sign up for a Sports Insights Pro trial and join our Live Betting Hangouts where we break down the entire board every weeknight from 6:30-7 p.m. ET.

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For more betting updates, be sure to follow us on twitter @ActionNetworkHQ 

A few reminders:

  • A really high bet percentage is usually a clear indicator of who public bettors (aka the guys who don’t do this for a living) are taking. And breaking news: The majority of public bettors aren’t successful over the long haul.
  • To help locate which games the pros are on, focus on the money percentage metric. If a team is getting a much higher share of dollars compared to bets, that’s a good sign that the wiseguys are on them.
  • Don’t blindly bet games based on percentages. You also have to look at the line movement. One of the best sharp indicators is Reverse Line Movement: when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the team the public is betting. Example: Duke is getting 75% of spread bets vs. North Carolina but you see the line move from Duke -1 to +1.5. That’s a sure sign the wiseguys are on UNC.

Cover Photo Via Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports

Pictured: llinois guard Trent Frazier