Tuesday Sharp Report: Wiseguys Getting Down on Four Totals, One Side

It's that time of year again. Hide yo kids. Hide yo wife. It's about to get crazy. Welcome to the Madness!

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After examining all the percentages, line movement and bet signals for Tuesday’s 12-game slate, here are five college basketball bets that professional players are focusing on today, including games that start at 7:00, 9:00, 9:10 and 10:00 p.m. ET.

All data as of 4:15 p.m. ET

Wagner-Baylor Under 138

7:00 p.m. ET

We're seeing a classic Pros vs. Joes bet split for this NIT First Round total. More than 70% of bets are taking the Over, but more than 60% of dollars are on the Under. Meanwhile, the total has fallen from 139 to 138 at Pinnacle, one of the sharpest offshore books. This Under movement was caused by a pair of steam moves at GTBets (U 141.5) and Greek (139.5), followed by a reverse line move at Carib (U 139).

Florida Gulf Coast-Oklahoma State Under 159

9:00 p.m. ET

Another NIT First Round sharp under. Despite the high total, recreational bettors see an easy Over with "Dunk City" and high-flying OK State. Not the sharps. Only 33% of bets are taking the Under but it accounts for more than 50% of dollars, a sharp bet vs. dollar discrepancy and clear indication of smart Under money.

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This total opened at 159 at Pinnacle and early public betting pushed it to 162. That's when sharps at 5Dimes (+64.4 units, the best bet signal book in all of college hoops) and GTBets triggered a pair of steam and reverse line moves, dropping it back down to 159. Essentially, we're looking at a sharp "line freeze" when comparing the open to the current number.

Hampton-Notre Dame Under 151.5

9:00 p.m. ET

Sharps and squares seem to be largely in agreement with this total. The Under is getting 65% of bets, but more than 90% of dollars, indicating Average Joe money but also big sharp professional money. The big dogs at 5Dimes steamed the Under 154.5 early this morning. A few hours later, wiseguys at Pinnacle crushed the Under 153. You had some late buyback at Over 151.

St. Bonaventure (+3) vs. UCLA

9:10 p.m. ET

In the most heavily bet game of the night, more than 60% of bets are laying the points with UCLA. Why? Because public bettors gravitate toward favorites and big-name schools. However, we've seen several sharp indicators on the underdog Bonnies in this First Four showdown. The Bonnies enjoy a valuable bet vs. dollar split (37% bets, 50% dollars), evidence of the bigger sharper wagers grabbing the points, not laying them. Meanwhile, despite a majority of bets taking the Bruins, the line has fallen toward St. Bonaventure (+3.5 to +3). This sharp reverse line movement indicates liability on the Bonnies.

Rider-Oregon Under 158.5

10:00 p.m. ET

Recreational bettors see the name "Oregon" and automatically think high-scoring game. Nearly 65% of bettors are taking the Over, yet the total has fallen from 162.5 to 158.5 across the market. This was caused by a pair of steam moves at GT Bets and Pinnacle, which forced the entire market to drop the total. The Under is also getting slightly more dollars (40%) than bets (36%), another sharp money indicator. Pinnacle is even more bullish on the Under, they're down to 158.

A few reminders:

• A really high bet percentage is usually a clear indicator of who public bettors (aka the guys who don’t do this for a living) are taking. And breaking news: The majority of public bettors aren’t successful over the long haul.
• To help locate which games the pros are on, focus on the money percentage metric. If a team is getting a much higher share of dollars compared to bets, that’s a good sign that the wiseguys are on them.
• Don’t blindly bet games based on percentages. You also have to look at the line movement. One of the best sharp indicators is Reverse Line Movement: when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the team the public is betting. Example: Duke is getting 75% of spread bets vs. North Carolina but you see the line move from Duke -1 to +1.5. That’s a sure sign the wiseguys are on UNC.

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Cover Photo via Rick Osentoski -USA TODAY Sports

Pictured: St Bonaventure guard Jaylen Adams (left), guard Matt Mobley (middle), and guard Idris Taqqee (right).