Tuesday’s Sharp Report: Five College Hoops Games the Wiseguys Are Betting
We have a lot of fancy tools here at The Action Network. Chief among them is our software that gathers real-time betting data on every game played in every major sport.
You can see that data in its full glory here, but the point of this story is to weed through the sea of games and percentages and tell you the real story behind the numbers.
Here’s all the info you need to bet more like a sharp and less like a square on Tuesday night’s college basketball slate.
All info as of 4:30 p.m. ET.
Two key metrics to start with whenever you’re looking at the betting market for a specific game: bet percentage and money percentage. Bet = total number of wagers on a game. Money = total dollars bet on a game.
You never want to focus on one and ignore the other. The key is using them together, side by side, to identify where the public is and where the sharps are.
A really high bet percentage is usually a clear indicator of who public bettors (aka the guys who don’t do this for a living) are taking. And breaking news: The majority of public bettors aren’t successful over the long haul.
Generally speaking, professional bettors will wager more money on a given game than your regular Joe. To us, professional players are sharp bettors who win at a high rate and have a long track record of success. To locate which games the Pros are on, focus on the money percentage metric. If a team is getting a much higher share of dollars compared to bets, that’s a good sign that the wiseguys are on them. The higher the discrepancy, the greater the value.
Lastly, don’t just blindly bet games based on percentages. You also have to look at the line movement. One of the best sharp indicators is Reverse Line Movement: when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the team the public is betting. Example: Duke is getting 80% of spread bets but you see the line fall from Duke -8 to -6.5. The fact that the line fell away from Duke, despite the Blue Devils getting an overwhelming majority of bets, indicates that sharps came in on the opponent.
Got it? Let’s dive into some games tonight.