Betting Buffalo-Miami Ohio: Bulls Laying Too Many Points?

Betting Buffalo-Miami Ohio: Bulls Laying Too Many Points? article feature image
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Timothy Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: CJ Massinburg

Most will turn their attention to Saturday's loaded college hoops card as the weekend comes along, which includes No. 4 Kentucky at No. 7 Tennessee, but there are still some intriguing matchups on Friday.

Among them, No. 21 Buffalo travels to Miami Ohio to battle the RedHawks. The Bulls notched a 24-point win on Jan. 12 and covered the 12-point spread.

That squashing was a part of four consecutive outright losses for Miami (OH) — and five straight against the spread. But it's turned things around by covering in eight of the next 11 games.

With that in mind, is the home team getting too many points? Let's break it down.

Buffalo Bulls at Miami (OH) RedHawks Betting Odds

  • Spread: Buffalo -8.5
  • Over/Under: 152
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS Sports Network

>> All odds as of Thursday night. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NCAAB odds and win probabilities on your bets.


The Bulls (16-10-1 ATS) have struggled on the road in league play, failing to cover in four of those seven contests. On the flip side, the RedHawks (14-12 ATS) are 4-7 ATS at home vs. MAC competition.

In their first meeting, Buffalo owned Miami inside the arc to the tune of 51.4% shooting, led by the 6-foot-8 Nick Perkins (14.5 points per game). While it doesn't run the majority of its action inside, Buffalo owns the 24th-highest 2-point clip (55.6%) across Division I.

The RedHawks' interior defense has improved dramatically in league play, though, yielding the third-lowest 2-point percentage (48.1%) and the fifth-lowest scoring rate (49.0%) in that department. Also expect Jack Owens' man-to-man defense, which boasts a slight size advantage, to deliver Buffalo issues off the dribble drive and in the low-post.

To make matters worse, Miami presents the highest defensive rebounding rate (25.3%) in league play, guided by the 6-foot-7 Dalonte Brown (5.4 rebounds per game). Not only can it control the tempo from that aspect, but the RedHawks have produced the MAC's third-highest free-throw rate (37.9%) while generating the highest scoring percentage (21.7%) from that area as well.

Buffalo has let up the fourth-highest free-throw rate (33.6%) in the conference, so it'll still struggle to push the tempo with its inability to stay out of foul trouble.

Even though the over is 5-2 (71.4%) in Buffalo's road conference matchups, I'd lean towards the under. Miami is set up well to utilize the 19th-lowest average possession length (19.1 seconds) in college basketball despite the Bulls' quick-paced attack. The under is 3-3 (50.0%) in its league home games, too.

With revenge on the RedHawks' minds, grab the points in this rematch in another road letdown spot for Buffalo as we approach the MAC Tournament.

THE PICK: Miami (OH) +8.5

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