Tuesday College Basketball Betting Breakdown, Odds, Picks: Purdue’s Road Woes, Akron’s Offense, More

Tuesday College Basketball Betting Breakdown, Odds, Picks: Purdue’s Road Woes, Akron’s Offense, More article feature image
Credit:

Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Jimond Ivey (0) and Akron Zips guard Loren Cristian Jackson (1).

It’s nearly impossible to handicap every game college basketball game, which makes our tools like public money percentages, PRO Systems and Bet Signals so important.

Each day in this space, I’m going to highlight a few interesting storylines from that night’s college hoops slate, one PRO system from Bet Labs with a match for that day, and one interesting note from the betting market.

Here’s Tuesday’s breakdown.


Odds as of Tuesday at 12:30 p.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.


1. Purdue’s Road Woes

Purdue at Rutgers (-3)

Mackey Arena has been one of the best home environments in college basketball over the last decade and a half.

Purdue’s home ATS records:

  • Since 2006: 125-84-4 (59.8%)
  • Since 2016: 37-18-1 (67.3%)

But this year especially, Matt Painter’s team has been dreadful away from Mackey at 1-5 against the spread.

Purdue is averaging just 54.8 points per game in regulation, and shooting worse than all but two teams on the road.

Tuesday, the Boilermakers face a Rutgers team with a stingy defense (No. 9 in efficiency) and strong home-court presence of its own.

It’s hard to imagine Purdue’s offense getting on track in this spot.

Pick: I’m going to play Rutgers small pre-game, and look to take the Scarlet Knights in the second half, as well. You can set alerts in The Action Network app so you know when this second-half line opens.

2. The Modern Zips

Buffalo at Akron (-7.5)

If you haven’t started paying attention to Akron, you probably should. The Zips are the highest-rated team in the MAC, and play with a modern offense that lights it up from 3-point range.

Akron shoots 3’s at a great clip, doesn’t take inefficient shots and takes its open looks in transition (via Hoop-Math).

The Zips’ offense is only getting better, too. The dashed line is their five-game rolling average for Adjusted Offensive Efficiency.

In that first game of the year, they even put up a strong performance with 1.02 points per possession against West Virginia, which has arguably the best defense in the country.

Akron’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Credit: BartTorvik.com

Strangely enough, the Zips are just a 7.5-point favorite over Buffalo at home on Tuesday night. That’s a big difference from what trusted projection systems KenPom (-12) and Bart Torvik (-16) make Akron.

Perhaps the betting market is anticipating some shooting regression from Akron, but I’ve had good luck backing this team and will continue to do so.

Pick: Akron -7.5

3. Tuesday PRO System

There are 11 games matching PRO Systems from Bet Labs on Tuesday, including this one.

Teams getting fewer than 25% of the bets in major conference games have typically been undervalued, cashing at a 57% clip over the past 15 years.

It fits three different games as of Tuesday at noon ET, including Mississippi State +6 at Florida. KenPom’s projections make that game Mississippi State +4.

4. Different Prices, Different Opinions

We’ve seen Bet Signals on Villanova vs. St. John’s at two different prices — Villanova -2.5 and St. John’s +3.5 shortly after that.

There are still some +3.5s out there as of Tuesday afternoon.

The same can be said for the Rutgers-Purdue total — sharp action on the over at 119, sharp action on the under at 120.5.

If you’re in New Jersey or Pennsylvania, you can use our best odds widgets to make sure you’re getting the best prices.

 

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