Tuesday College Basketball Betting Breakdown, Odds, Picks: Purdue’s Road Woes, Akron’s Offense, More
Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Jimond Ivey (0) and Akron Zips guard Loren Cristian Jackson (1).
Each day in this space, I’m going to highlight a few interesting storylines from that night’s college hoops slate, one PRO system from Bet Labs with a match for that day, and one interesting note from the betting market.
Here’s Tuesday’s breakdown.
Odds as of Tuesday at 12:30 p.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.
1. Purdue’s Road Woes
Purdue at Rutgers (-3)
Mackey Arena has been one of the best home environments in college basketball over the last decade and a half.
Purdue’s home ATS records:
- Since 2006: 125-84-4 (59.8%)
- Since 2016: 37-18-1 (67.3%)
But this year especially, Matt Painter’s team has been dreadful away from Mackey at 1-5 against the spread.
Purdue is averaging just 54.8 points per game in regulation, and shooting worse than all but two teams on the road.
Tuesday, the Boilermakers face a Rutgers team with a stingy defense (No. 9 in efficiency) and strong home-court presence of its own.
It’s hard to imagine Purdue’s offense getting on track in this spot.
Pick: I’m going to play Rutgers small pre-game, and look to take the Scarlet Knights in the second half, as well. You can set alerts in The Action Network app so you know when this second-half line opens.
2. The Modern Zips
Buffalo at Akron (-7.5)
If you haven’t started paying attention to Akron, you probably should. The Zips are the highest-rated team in the MAC, and play with a modern offense that lights it up from 3-point range.
Akron shoots 3’s at a great clip, doesn’t take inefficient shots and takes its open looks in transition (via Hoop-Math).
The Zips’ offense is only getting better, too. The dashed line is their five-game rolling average for Adjusted Offensive Efficiency.
In that first game of the year, they even put up a strong performance with 1.02 points per possession against West Virginia, which has arguably the best defense in the country.
Strangely enough, the Zips are just a 7.5-point favorite over Buffalo at home on Tuesday night. That’s a big difference from what trusted projection systems KenPom (-12) and Bart Torvik (-16) make Akron.
Perhaps the betting market is anticipating some shooting regression from Akron, but I’ve had good luck backing this team and will continue to do so.
Pick: Akron -7.5
3. Tuesday PRO System
There are 11 games matching PRO Systems from Bet Labs on Tuesday, including this one.
Teams getting fewer than 25% of the bets in major conference games have typically been undervalued, cashing at a 57% clip over the past 15 years.
It fits three different games as of Tuesday at noon ET, including Mississippi State +6 at Florida. KenPom’s projections make that game Mississippi State +4.
4. Different Prices, Different Opinions
We’ve seen Bet Signals on Villanova vs. St. John’s at two different prices — Villanova -2.5 and St. John’s +3.5 shortly after that.
There are still some +3.5s out there as of Tuesday afternoon.
If you’re in New Jersey or Pennsylvania, you can use our best odds widgets to make sure you’re getting the best prices.