Sunday’s College Basketball Betting Previews: Michigan State-Purdue, DePaul-Providence
Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Michigan State Spartans forward Nick Ward (44), Purdue Boilermakers center Matt Haarms (32).
After a thrilling day of college basketball, including North Carolina State’s Braxton Beverly hitting a buzzer-beating 3-pointer to knock off Clemson, Sunday’s slate still includes four ranked teams.
Among them, No. 6 Michigan State travels to matchup against the white-hot Purdue Boilermakers after unranked Providence faces DePaul. What are the sides to wager on in these two games? Let’s break them down.
>> All odds as of Saturday evening. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NCAAB odds and track your bets.
Betting Odds: DePaul Blue Demons at Providence Friars
- Spread: Providence -6
- Over/Under: 143.5
- Time: Noon ET
- TV: Fox Sports 1
The Blue Demons (9-9 against the spread) have covered in three of their past five games while the Friars (9-10 ATS) have only done so in two of their past six contests. But Ed Cooley’s crew has won two if its past three contests outright, and it could receive even bigger news before tip-off.
Freshman wing A.J. Reeves (14.2 points per game), who’s missed the last nine games with a foot injury, will be a game-time decision.
Even if 6-foot-6 freshman doesn’t suit up, Providence has started to turn its campaign around via its tough defense, owning the Big East’s second-highest Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (103.7 opponents’ points per 100 possessions) in conference play.
Within that metric, they’re allowing just 46.4% of their opponents’ scoring to come inside the perimeter — the ninth-lowest rate amid the Big East docket. Meanwhile, DePaul has notched 57.1% of its points from that vicinity. With the Friars boasting a slight size advantage, along with the 55th-highest block rate (12.0%) in the country, they should stymie the opposition at that end.
The Blue Demons have generated just 25.5% of their offense from behind the arc, too. Given their 3-point struggles (32.3%), Providence will control the pace by controlling the paint, as well as via their 21.3% opponents’ turnover rate in conference play. DePaul is turning it over at a 19.8% clip during that span — the second-highest percentage in the league.
According to our Bet Labs data, the Friars are 4-3 (57.1%) ATS as a single-digit favorite this season. Expect them to continue that trend in Rhode Island.
THE PICK: Providence -6
Betting Odds: Michigan State Spartans at Purdue Boilermakers
- Spread: Michigan State -2.5
- Over/Under: 147
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
The Spartans (16-4 ATS) have picked up a cover in nine straight contests, but the Boilermakers (11-8 ATS) have their own streak rolling, covering in each of their past four games.
While Michigan State is on a tear in Big Ten play via its conference-high Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (116.8 points per 100 possessions), Purdue has a bit of an edge at that side of the court.
Against conference opponents, the Spartans have totaled a 19.1% turnover rate — the fourth-highest percentage.
Matt Painter’s unit is turning its opponents over at a 23.7% rate — the highest in the league. Carsen Edwards, a Naismith Player of the Year candidate, and his backcourt mate Nojel Eastern should give Cassius Winston (18.3 ppg) and Co. their toughest test offensively with their sound ball pressure.
Purdue has let up the lowest scoring rate from inside the perimeter during league play, too. The Spartans are bound to produce in that department with an elite back-to-the-basket big in Nick Ward (16.0 ppg). But the 6-foot-9 freshman Trevion Williams has been a revelation inside, and he’ll give Ward a duel via his physicality and size.
With their stellar defense in both areas, Purdue should be able to produce a below-average Adjusted Tempo (66.8 possessions per 40 minutes). Given how Iowa ran out of gas while trying execute its run-and-gun philosophy for a full game against Michigan State on Thursday, this style likely would do the Boilermakers wonders to limit the Spartans from pushing the floor constantly.
Michigan State fended off Edwards the first time around, as he got trigger-happy in an 18-point loss in East Lansing on Jan. 8. But the 6-foot-1 guard (24.7 ppg) is one of the top players in the country at creating space for himself in the most unforeseen circumstances. Expect the Boilermakers to run more of their attack through Edwards’ dribble drive and Williams in the low-post to deliver finer execution.
THE PICK: Purdue +2.5