Tuesday’s College Basketball Betting Previews: North Carolina-NC State, Iowa State-Baylor

Tuesday’s College Basketball Betting Previews: North Carolina-NC State, Iowa State-Baylor article feature image

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Cameron Johnson, Markell Johnson

After a dull college basketball slate on Monday, the action ramps up again with 12 ranked teams taking the court on Tuesday night, including No. 20 Iowa State at Baylor and No. 12 North Carolina at No. 15 NC State.

Where’s the value in these two matchups? Let’s break them down.

>> All odds as of early Tuesday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NCAAB odds and track your bets.

Betting Odds: Iowa State Cyclones at Baylor Bears

  • Spread: Iowa State -3
  • Over/Under: 136
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPNews

The Cyclones (9-5 against the spread) are coming off a dominant upset win over No. 7 Kansas, but this won’t be a cakewalk against the Bears (7-6 ATS).

Baylor’s 27th-rated Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (93.5 opponents’ points per 100 possessions) is letting up only 56 points per game over its past five. Scott Drew often switches to a zone look, relying on his front court to protect the lane via the third-highest block rate (17.7%) in Division I.

The Bears have a slight size advantage over Iowa State and will look for the 6-foot-9, 240-pound Tristan Clark to be a major difference-maker when the Cyclones attack the rim.

Credit: Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tristan Clark

Both teams are turning over opponents consistently, so the tempo should be ramped up. The Cyclones have notched 40.9% of their field goal attempts from the perimeter, and they’ll attack with 3s while pushing the floor. The Bears are yielding a 32.0% clip from 3-point range, though. Once their ball pressure starts dragging out beyond the arc, it’ll give Steve Prohm’s group some issues.

Offensively, Baylor should own the paint with its 55.5% 2-point shooting in addition to college basketball’s 18th-highest rebounding rate. That’ll allow the Bears to stave off a shootout, given they’ve produced the 26th-lowest 3-point percentage (28.8%).

The Bears are 12-10 (54.5%) ATS as an underdog, dating back to the 2016-17 season. Look for them to cover in a Cyclones’ letdown.

THE PICK: Baylor +3

Betting Odds: North Carolina Tar Heels at NC State Wolfpack

  • Spread: Pick ’em
  • Over/Under: 172
  • Time: 9 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN

The Tar Heels (8-4 ATS) have won 16 games of their past 20 ranked meetings with their conference foe. They also have a major height advantage over the Wolfpack (11-3 ATS), even without forward Sterling Manley (knee injury).

Although UNC has one of the country’s most talented frontcourts, it’s been plagued by turnovers, especially from point guard Coby White (20.9%). Expect NC State’s ball pressure to bother him throughout, as the Wolfpack is turning over opponents on 24.6% of their possessions — the seventh-highest rate in the country.

Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Coby White

When the 6-foot-5, 185-pound freshman struggles, the Tar Heels’ entire offense usually loses its composure. His backup Seventh Woods has even accumulated a 29.1% turnover rate.

If the Wolfpack can leak out in transition frequently, lookout. They’re amassing the eighth-highest 3-point percentage (40.9%) in the nation, paced by a small-ball lineup with efficient perimeter shooting. Both ACC programs boast fast-paced attacks, which should favor an NC State team that yields the 13th-lowest 3-point clip (28.4%) despite the Tar Heels’ 36.8% shooting from deep.

Although Kevin Keatts’ crew has lacked size in most games, it’s still generating the 12th-highest 2-point percentage (57.8%) in DI while nabbing the fifth-highest offensive rebounding rate.

The Wolfpack’s gang rebounding will be crucial in their attempt to pull off the upset win in a ruckus environment.