College Basketball Betting Tip: Poor Recent Form Creating Value in Pittsburgh-Miami

After going 10-3 in its non-conference slate, Pittsburgh started ACC play at 2-2 including a win over No. 11 Florida State. The Panthers were on the right path to earn an NCAA tournament bid but it's been all downhill ever since.

Pitt has lost 12 straight since earning its only win over a Top 25 program this season. On Saturday, Jeff Capel’s squad got rolled, 73-49, on the road in Virginia. It was Pitt’s 23rd straight loss away from Petersen Events Center and its 20th consecutive loss in ACC road play.

On top of losing 12 straight, the Panthers haven't cashed a ticket for bettors since that upset of Florida State back in mid-January.

On Tuesday, they're back in action on the road in Miami (8 p.m. ET, ACCNE). Given the team’s poor recent form, only 26% of spread tickets are on Pitt as 6-point underdogs.

It shouldn't come as a surprise that recreational gamblers want no part of Pittsburgh. But that could be a mistake. The Panthers are certainly bad, but that is precisely why I’m going to bet them.

Pitt’s awful play the past month is likely to lead to inflated lines, and while the Panthers have struggled on the road, home-court advantage is generally overvalued in college basketball, which should create extra value betting on Capel’s squad.

The following Bet Labs system takes advantage of teams in this situation:

Since 2005, teams performing poorly that play their next game on the road against a conference opponent, like Pittsburgh, have gone 266-189-7 (58.5%) against the spread. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $6,297 following this system.

With a large sample size (462 games) and consistent results — the system has been profitable in 12 of 15 seasons — we can have confidence that poorly performing teams will continue to be undervalued in this situation.