College Basketball Odds & Betting Picks: How to Play Oregon State-Washington State

Despite lackluster results since the calendar turned to January, Oregon State has an opportunity to go on a run. The Beavers’ schedule sets up nicely in the next two weeks, starting with this road trip to Pullman, Wash.

As for Washington State, the Cougars are still probably celebrating their first upset of a top 10 team since their current starters were in second grade.

Here's how I’m playing this afternoon matchup in the Pac-12.

College Basketball Odds & Picks

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Oregon State at Washington State

• Spread: Oregon State -3.5
• Over/Under: 141
• Time: 4 p.m. ET
• TV: Pac-12 Network

Right off the bat, this line should appear out of wack to casual observers. Both Oregon State and Washington State are far from basketball royalty, and they share identical 2-3 Pac-12 records headed into Saturday afternoon’s contest. Yet despite those facts, the road team is favored by four points.

The letdown factor is alive and well for Wazzu in this spot. The Cougars just knocked off Oregon on Thursday, the program's best win since an overtime upset of seventh-ranked Arizona in 2007.

Oregon State, meanwhile, has been treading water the last six weeks — 4-4 straight-up in their previous eight, with a matching 4-4 record against the spread.

So why the sudden love for the Beavers on the road?

When you look into this Pac-12 matchup, it's easy to see why oddsmakers are more confident in Oregon State. Since Wayne Tinkle's arrival in Corvallis, the Beavers are 7-1 against the Cougars.

And more importantly, Oregon State is a much more promising team statistically than Washington State. The Beavers are the tenth most efficient offense in all of college basketball — Wazzu checks in 166 slots behind them. And while OSU is far from a crack defensive unit, they do send back 5.9 shots per game, which ranks them 11th in the country.

For all the positive statistical notes for OSU, there are a laundry list of red flags for the Cougars. The Crimson and Gray rank 275th or lower in the following offensive categories:

• Two Point %
• Three Point %
• Effective FG %
• Shooting Efficiency
• Assists/FGM Ratio

It took a tremendous three-point shooting night and a star turn from Washington State's CJ Elleby to upset Oregon. And Elleby is the reason I'm bullish on the Beavers in this spot.

For as good as the sophomore has been first-year head coach Kyle Smith, Oregon State can answer with an even better option in the form of Tres Tinkle.

The 6-foot-8 jack of all trades is averaging an astonishing line of 19.6 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 3.8 apg, and 2.1 spg on 44.4% shooting from long range.

If Tinkle can even battle Elleby to a draw, the rest of the Beavers will have no problem covering this number as a road dog.

Pick: Oregon State -3.5