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College Basketball Odds & Pick for Gonzaga vs. Baylor: Sharps Moving Over/Under in Marquee Matchup

College Basketball Odds & Pick for Gonzaga vs. Baylor: Sharps Moving Over/Under in Marquee Matchup article feature image

Andy Lyons/Getty Images. Pictured: Davion Mitchell

  • Gonzaga faces Baylor in a No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup early in the college basketball season on Saturday.
  • Sharps aren't always drawn to big games when there isn't value, but they've moved the total quite a bit already.
  • Danny Donahue breaks down what that means for this game below.

Editor’s Note: Saturday’s Gonzaga vs. Baylor game has been canceled due to issues related to COVID-19.

College Basketball Odds: Gonzaga vs. Baylor

Gonzaga Odds -2.5
Baylor Odds +2.5
Over/Under 159.5
Time 1 p.m. ET
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Sharp bettors don’t always bet the “big” matchups. They care about a game’s value — not its hype — so they weren’t drawn to Gonzaga-Baylor because it’s a 1-vs.-2 matchup; they were drawn to it because they simply thought the total was too high.

At least that’s what our PRO Report tells us.

There’s more CBB PRO Report value Saturday…

SMU vs. Dayton

Montana vs. Southern Utah

Oakland vs. Oklahoma State

College Basketball Sharp Pick: Gonzaga vs. Baylor

Both the Sharp Action and Big Money indicators are lit up on our PRO Report, and they’re likely telling the same story: big bets from professional bettors are the reason this line has dropped almost four points.

And with a PRO Systems edge on the under as well, it’s clear that history is on the same side.

Sharp Action

The total’s 3.5-point drop (as of writing) has come despite just 34% of bettors taking the under, which should tell you something about the type of bettors among that 34%.

Sure enough, Sports Insights Bet Signals have been triggered four times on this game, all on the under, revealing four separate waves of sharp action causing market-wide movement.

Sharp Action edge: Under

Big Money

Also providing a hint toward a sharp under backing, that 34% on the under has generated 78% of the money hitting this total. Of course, that’s going to create a monetary liability for which sportsbooks need to account, but more importantly, the discrepancy reveals that the under is landing much, much bigger bets — the ones more likely to come from sharps.

Big Money edge: Under

PRO Systems

It’s not just the sharps suggesting value on the under, either. History is on that side as well.

With a high total at a neutral site, this game fits as a match for our “Neutral Court Unders” PRO Betting System, which has returned a 55% win rate on a sample of more than 1,500 games since 2005.

PRO Systems edge: Under

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