College Basketball Odds & Pick for Gonzaga vs. Baylor: Sharps Moving Over/Under in Marquee Matchup
Andy Lyons/Getty Images. Pictured: Davion Mitchell
- Gonzaga faces Baylor in a No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup early in the college basketball season on Saturday.
- Sharps aren't always drawn to big games when there isn't value, but they've moved the total quite a bit already.
- Danny Donahue breaks down what that means for this game below.
Editor’s Note: Saturday’s Gonzaga vs. Baylor game has been canceled due to issues related to COVID-19.
College Basketball Odds: Gonzaga vs. Baylor
| Gonzaga Odds | -2.5 |
| Baylor Odds | +2.5 |
| Over/Under | 159.5 |
| Time | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Sharp bettors don’t always bet the “big” matchups. They care about a game’s value — not its hype — so they weren’t drawn to Gonzaga-Baylor because it’s a 1-vs.-2 matchup; they were drawn to it because they simply thought the total was too high.
At least that’s what our PRO Report tells us.
College Basketball Sharp Pick: Gonzaga vs. Baylor
Both the Sharp Action and Big Money indicators are lit up on our PRO Report, and they’re likely telling the same story: big bets from professional bettors are the reason this line has dropped almost four points.
And with a PRO Systems edge on the under as well, it’s clear that history is on the same side.
Sharp Action
The total’s 3.5-point drop (as of writing) has come despite just 34% of bettors taking the under, which should tell you something about the type of bettors among that 34%.
Sure enough, Sports Insights Bet Signals have been triggered four times on this game, all on the under, revealing four separate waves of sharp action causing market-wide movement.
Sharp Action edge: Under
Big Money
Also providing a hint toward a sharp under backing, that 34% on the under has generated 78% of the money hitting this total. Of course, that’s going to create a monetary liability for which sportsbooks need to account, but more importantly, the discrepancy reveals that the under is landing much, much bigger bets — the ones more likely to come from sharps.
Big Money edge: Under
PRO Systems
It’s not just the sharps suggesting value on the under, either. History is on that side as well.
With a high total at a neutral site, this game fits as a match for our “Neutral Court Unders” PRO Betting System, which has returned a 55% win rate on a sample of more than 1,500 games since 2005.
PRO Systems edge: Under
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