College Basketball Betting Odds & Picks: Where’s the Edge in Oregon State vs. Oregon?

The first battle in the Civil War went the way of the Beavers up in Corvallis earlier this month. That 10-point victory for Oregon State is the program’s marquee win on the season.

For Oregon, the loss has inspired better play out of the Ducks who have since captured ranked victories over Colorado and Arizona.

The rematch in Eugene is incredibly meaningful for both programs as OSU fights to keep its long shot at-large hopes alive, while Oregon looks to move one step closer to its first regular season Pac-12 title since 2017.

College Basketball Odds & Picks

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Oregon State at Oregon

• Spread: Oregon-10
• Over/Under: 137
• Time: 11 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2

Both programs thrive on their home floor. Oregon State has posted a 10-4 straight-up record and a 9-5 ATS record, including an outright win over Oregon, on their home court.

Oregon has a matching 9-5 ATS home record, but is a perfect 14-0 SU against the competition in Eugene. When the Beavers venture outside of their cozy dam, things get dicey for Oregon State. OSU is 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS on the road this season.

The Ducks rely heavily on the 3-point shot, and connect on 38% of them (14th nationally). Oregon’s 3-point accuracy gets a boost at home, with UO shooting better than 41% from long range in three of its last six home games (4-2 ATS over that stretch).

Oregon State, far from a defensive juggernaut, is allowing opponents to hit 34.2% of their 3-point attempts, which ranks ninth in the Pac-12.

Another vulnerability that plays into Oregon’s hands is the rebounding disparity.

Oregon’s offensive rebounding rate checks in at 43rd nationally and second in the Pac-12. Oregon State’s lone big, Kylor Kelley, is averaging just 5.1 rebounds per game and plays a large role in Oregon State’s losses this season. When the seven-footer grabs fewer than five boards, Oregon State is 1-5 in Pac-12 play.

Tres Tinkle, OSU’s go-to fifth-year senior, has noticeably struggled on the road this year. In his eight Pac-12 road games this season he’s averaging 16.8 points, while shooting 38% from the floor and just 19% from three.

Meanwhile, Oregon’s superstar Payton Pritchard has been red-hot for the past two weeks. Pritchard is averaging 24 points per game and shooting 44.7% from 3-point range since their loss to Oregon State on Feb. 8.

When you factor in both teams home/away splits, how their respective superstars have been playing as of late, and the decided advantage Oregon will enjoy both on the perimeter and on the offensive glass, the decision is simple. I took the home team in the first round of the Civil War, and I’m doing it again here.

Pick: Oregon-10