Pro Bettors Driving Significant Duke-Notre Dame Line Movement
Duke Blue Devils Zion Williamson, Cam Reddish and R.J. Barrett. Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys are getting down on the most heavily bet game of the night on Monday, Duke-Notre Dame (7 p.m. ET on ESPN).
- Duke is listed as a 14.5-point favorite over Notre Dame, with an Over/Under of 152.5.
- Using the tools at the Action Network, we analyze how sharps are betting the game.
Mondays are typically the quietest days on the college hoops betting calendar. Weekend warriors have come and gone, the slate is small, and bettors thirsty for a “breather” have a golden opportunity to take the day off.
Not the sharps. If value presents itself, they get down. There’s no such thing as an off day if they locate an edge.
After analyzing Monday’s college basketball action using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, it’s clear that professional bettors are honing in on the marquee game of the night: Duke at Notre Dame (7 p.m. ET on ESPN).
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Duke @ Notre Dame
7 p.m. ET | ESPN
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 149 to 152.5)
Anytime Duke (17-2, ranked 2nd overall) takes the court, recreational bettors almost always gravitate toward the over. Why? Because the Blue Devils’ lineup is littered with future NBA stars who score at will and Coach K is an offensive genius.
As a result, wiseguys know that, in a vacuum, Duke unders always have more value due to public bias creating artificially inflated numbers.
However, tonight is a unique situation where the public is undecided on the over/under, likely due to Duke’s stingy defense and Notre Dame’s (11-9, unranked) slow pace. Also, the over has gone just 5-13-1 in Duke games this season. This means public bettors have been burned and their recency bias tells them to go the other way, which creates additional “buy low” value on Duke overs.
That plethora of factors has led to a rare opportunity for sharps to sweat a Duke over in the most heavily bet game of the night.
This ACC total opened at a moderately-high 149. Currently, 52% of bets are taking the over, yet the total has risen to 152.5. Normally, if betting splits are even the line shouldn’t have any reason to move at all.
So what caused the over/under to rise 3.5 points?
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed six separate steam and reverse line moves on the over, with pro players hammering the over at totals of 149 (three times), 150 (twice) and 152.
The fact that sharps kept hitting the over despite the line getting worse indicates supreme wiseguy confidence in a high-scoring game.