CBB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Duke-UNC, 2 Other Friday Games
Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Duke Blue Devils forward Javin DeLaurier (12) and North Carolina Tar Heels forward Nassir Little (5)
- Wiseguys are getting down on three conference tournament games, headlined by Duke-UNC (9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN).
- Sharps are also betting Xavier-Villanova (6:30 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1) and Florida State-Virginia (7 p,m. ET on ESPN).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.
Wiseguys grinded out another winning day on Thursday, cashing the UCLA under and Iowa under en route to a 2-1 night. Today, sharps will look to take advantage of a slightly smaller conference tournament slate and keep the good vibes rolling as they head into the weekend.
After analyzing Friday’s loaded 43-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified three games receiving sharp action from professional bettors.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Xavier vs. Villanova
6:30 p.m. ET | Fox Sports 1
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 135.5 to 133)
Recreational bettors don’t know which way to go with this Big East Tournament semifinal over/under.
This total opened at 135.5. Currently 54% of bets are taking the under, indicating slight public support. However, the under is also receiving 80% of dollars, signaling heavy respected money from pro players.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we tracked two big steam moves on the under. Wiseguys hammered the under at 135 and then came back and hit it again at 134. This overload of smart money forced oddsmakers to drop the total down to 133.
This under also fits a profitable Bet Labs system based on tired legs during conference tournaments. When the total is 137.5 or lower and both teams played the day before, the under has hit at a 57.6% clip since 2005.
Florida State vs. Virginia
7 p.m. ET | ESPN
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 125.5 to 124.5)
This ACC Tournament semifinal over/under is another tough call for the public.
Casual bettors see a super low total and automatically think is has to go over. But they also see Virginia’s stifling defense (allowing only 54.6 points per game) and get “over” stage fright.
But sharps have no fear. This is a clear under play.
The total opened at 125.5. Bets are split right down the middle, 50/50, but nearly 70% of dollars are taking the under, which means the big wagers from respected players are backing a low scoring game.
Sharps steamed the under 125.5 as soon as the line opened and we haven’t seen any conflicting over moves.
This under also fits the tired legs, back-to-back under system (57.1% since 2005).
Duke vs. North Carolina
9 p.m. ET | ESPN
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 163 to 164.5)
One of the greatest rivalries is sports renews tonight as Duke and North Carolina face off in the ACC Tournament semifinals.
In what will end up being by far the most heavily bet game of the night, pros and Joes are on opposite sides of the over/under, but on different sides than you would expect.
Normally, public bettors always gravitate toward overs because they want to root for points and cash a high-scoring entertaining game. However, because this total is so high, the public is actually leaning under tonight. This provides sharps a classic contrarian over opportunity.
This total opened at 163. Currently 65% of bets are taking the under, yet the total has risen to 164.5. Why would the oddsmakers hand out extra points to make it easier for public under backers to cash?
If it looks too good to be true, it almost always is.
We noticed two big steam moves on the over, with Goodfellas crushing the over 162 and over 164 across the market. We haven’t seen any conflicting under plays (or buyback).
The over is getting only 34% of bets, but 53% of dollars — further evidence of wiseguys banking on a high scoring game.